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POSTED ON November 12, 2021  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The federal budget deficit in October came in at $165 billion. That represents a staggering 36.8% of total expenditures for the month.

This is slightly below the 12-month average where the deficit represented 39.3% of total expenditures. Over the twelve-month period, the total deficit was $2.65 trillion driven by total expenditures that reached $6.7 trillion.

The following analysis breaks down the huge October federal budget deficit and sets it in historical context.

POSTED ON October 29, 2021  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The Federal Reserve has slightly slowed its asset purchases over the last few months. Was this a trial mini-taper?

If so, the results are not good news for the central bankers over at the Fed.

The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.56 trillion. That’s up by $108 billion from the prior month-end, but down over the past week by $8.7 billion. The chart below shows how the Fed Balance sheet has grown by instrument over the last 18 months.

POSTED ON October 26, 2021  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The federal budget deficit for September 2021 was $61.5 billion, down from the $171 billion in August. Even though the deficit fell 64% MoM, it was driven primarily by receipts. Spending was up 18.7% MoM but receipts were up 71.2% driven by a surge in corporate and individual taxes.

POSTED ON October 25, 2021  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The analysis last month showed that selling exhaustion may be near in the gold market. Since then, gold continues to be range-bound between $1750 and $1800 running up against both solid resistance and support. Meanwhile, silver has shown a mini-breakout.

The $1800 level for gold is in play this week and could open the door for a big move if it gets through it soon.

POSTED ON October 15, 2021  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The CPI data for September came in hotter than expected at 0.4%. That pushed the yearly gain to 5.4%. But an honest CPI calculation would come in even hotter.

I am doing something different this month. In past reviews of the CPI, I typically take the BLS data and recalculate the values to get a more detailed number that is rounded to two decimal points instead of one. This methodology also allows me to show the impact of each component on the top-line number.

POSTED ON October 8, 2021  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

For the second month in a row, the jobs numbers in September came in well below expectations.

The Labor Department reported an increase of only 194,000 jobs, well below the estimated 500,000. The big miss was similar to August’s report.

Despite the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.8% from 5.2% and an upward August revision of 131,000 jobs, this is the weakest jobs report since January.

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