Have you ever had a gut feeling that the labor reports put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are hinky?
If so, trust your gut.
According to the BLS, the economy added 263k jobs in November with a modest revision up in October from 261k to 284k but a revision down in September from 365k to 269k. October was a beat against median expectations of 200k. The employment rate (black line) stayed flat at 3.7% while the labor force participation ticked down from 62.2% to 62.1% This is the weakest labor force participation since December of last year.
Despite the better-than-expected headline number, the job market continues to slow.
According to the BLS, the economy added 261k jobs in October with a big upward revision in September from 263k to 315k. October was a beat against median expectations of 205k. The employment rate (black line) increased from 3.5% to 3.7% while the labor force participation ticked down from 62.3% to 62.2%.
According to the BLS, the economy added 315k jobs in August, which was on par with analyst estimates. While the job numbers continue to appear strong, a deeper look into the data shows some trends that may indicate weakness.
According to the BLS, the economy added 528k jobs in July, blasting past analyst estimates of 250k. The strong report comes on the heels of a Fed meeting last week that made a point to state they are hyper-focused on the job market as a sign of a weakening economy. The White House and Fed are now in lock step ignoring negative GDP growth and hanging their hat on the job market. For now, that message fits their narrative.
The economic data indicates that the US economy is already in a recession. The Biden administration wants you to think otherwise, and the White House has come up with an interesting way to deny the recession reality. Just change the definition of a recession.
Peter Schiff appeared on the Ingraham Angle with Lauren Ingraham to talk about this White House spin.
The May jobs report was widely regarded as strong. The US economy added 390,000 jobs, according to the latest data. But a deeper dive into that data reveals that the labor market might not be as strong as the mainstream spin is leading you to believe. Even with all the new jobs, hiring slowed in five out of eight sectors.
February was another very strong jobs month with the economy adding an estimated 678,000 jobs vs an expected 400,000.
The unemployment rate came in at 3.8%, down from 4%. Labor force participation also improved, rising from 62.2% to 62.3%. Both December and January numbers were revised upwards.
January showed very strong growth with 467k new jobs reported by the BLS. This crushed expectations of 150k. Some analysts even projected a contraction given the reported loss by ADP on Wednesday.
However, the bigger story is the revisions of prior months. October to December saw upward revisions of nearly 900k jobs! The story is more complex though. The BLS has updated their models to “smooth” out the job numbers for seasonality. Most of these “new” gains were pulled from job reports last summer (more on this below).
That was one weird jobs report.
The labor department released the November employment data on Friday. The numbers simply don’t make any sense. As one chief investment officer put it, “One of the weirdest reports I have ever seen.”
One thing seems pretty certain. The labor market has not recovered, no matter how the powers that be spin the numbers.
