It’s getting harder and harder to deny recession reality. Even as the Biden administration tries to spin itself out of that reality with a propaganda campaign, many in the mainstream seem to be waking up.
On Monday (July 25), Reuters reported that the tanking housing market is a red warning flag signaling a recession.
It’s getting harder and harder for recession deniers to justify their optimism. And some people seem to be waking up to that reality.
Late last week, we got more economic data and corporate earning news that proves the economic optimism that’s been bandied about for months is unfounded.
We’ve heard all kinds of excuses for inflation. It was COVID. It was Putin’s price hikes. It’s greedy corporations. This week, we learned it’s the millennials’ fault. As host Mike Maharrey explains in this week’s Friday Gold Wrap, all of these notions miss the mark. And they let the real culprit get off scot-free. How? They’ve redefined inflation. Words matter!
Inflation is off the chain. The CPI rose by 9.2% on an annual basis in June. As Ron Paul explains, everybody is feeling the pain. Even penguins.
Retail sales rose 1% in June after a 0.1% decline in May. Mainstream media breathlessly reported that the jump in retail spending “eases” recession fears.
Does it though?
If you’re hoping red-hot inflation will cool down significantly in the coming months, you’re probably going to be disappointed if producer prices provide any indication.
It happened again. The CPI data for June came in hotter than expected. Prices rose at the fastest pace in this inflationary cycle. That pushes the Fed ever closer to having to make a very difficult choice. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the most recent CPI data and talks about the “Sophie’s choice” facing the Federal Reserve.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the central bank have continued to talk tough about fighting inflation. But I’m pretty certain that in private, they were desperately hoping to see some cooling in the inflation data so they could start backing out of the ring. With a recession pretty clearly on the horizon (if not already here), you can bet that the central bankers don’t want to keep tightening monetary policy.
They didn’t get their wish.
The slowdown in money creation could be signaling a recession.
The growth in the money supply has dropped precipitously over the last several months. As measured by M2, the money supply expanded by 6.6% year on year. That was down from April’s growth rate of 8.21%. In May 2021, M2 grew by 14.30%. M2 growth peaked at a record 26.91% in February 2021.
Air is hissing out of the housing bubble faster and faster every week.
Pending sales plunged in June and the inventory of homes on the market jumped as mortgage rates continue to rapidly rise.
