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POSTED ON January 29, 2024  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

A Major Trend Change 

In 2023, the Treasury added $2.6T to the national debt. While that number alone should be enough to scare anyone, the details reveal something even more concerning. $2T of it, or 77%, was financed entirely with short-term Treasury Bills maturing in less than a year. The chart below shows the debt issuance trend over the last 20 years. As shown, the Treasury typically relies on medium-term debt (2-10 Year Notes) to fund the budget deficit. 2023 was a massive change in standard procedure as shown by the giant light blue bar on the right of the chart. 

POSTED ON January 25, 2024  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

After a delicate dance of interest rate increases, Jerome Powell has declared victory on inflation and says to expect looser monetary policy this year. But with junk bond spreads not widening nearly as much as one would expect during an era of economic tightening, you’ve got to wonder if money is still actually looser than the Fed’s last round of hikes would lead you to believe. 

POSTED ON January 23, 2024  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Peter was recently featured on Real America hosted by Dan Ball.

It’s no secret that the government has been spending more than it collects, and there are indications that the Biden administration is addressing this issue.

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