In January, retail sales came in much hotter than expected. Now we know how consumers paid for the spending spree. They put it on credit cards.
After slowing modestly in December, growth in revolving debt spiked again in January. But a slowdown in non-revolving credit moderated the overall increase in consumer debt.
Overall, this signals a pretty bleak trajectory for the economy.
Retail sales surged in January, creating the impression that the economy is humming along nicely. After all, there can’t be a problem if consumers are out there consuming, right?
But a lot of people are ignoring a key question: how are people paying for this shopping spree?
After charting its biggest increase since 2007 in the third quarter, household debt surged again in Q4 as Americans try to borrow their way out of the squeeze soaring price inflation has put on their wallets.
Total household debt rose by $394 billion in the last quarter of 2022, according to the latest New York Fed Household Debt and Credit report. It was the biggest quarter-on-quarter rise in two decades.
Retail sales came in much stronger than expected in January after declining the previous two months. Mainstream financial media pundits immediately declared that this “jump in consumer spending” was a good sign for the economy. The Wall Street Journal called the robust sales report “evidence that US economic growth picked up at the start of the year.”
But there is a dark side to this retail sales report.
The CPI data for December buoyed markets and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is winning its war against inflation. But in his podcast, Peter explained that the Fed isn’t winning the war. It is losing and will ultimately surrender to inflation.
Rising consumer debts colliding with rising interest rates is a ticking time bomb.
Over the last several months, consumer debt has climbed at a steep, steady pace as Americans struggle with rising prices. November was no different, with consumers piling on another $27.9 billion in debt.
After household debt grew by the largest amount since 2007 in the third quarter, American consumers kicked off the fourth quarter by piling on even more debt.
Consumer debt grew by another $27 billion in October, a 6.9% year-on-year increase. Americans now owe $4.73 trillion in consumer debt, according to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve.
With real wages decreasing and inflation running rampant, Americans are burying themselves in debt to make ends meet.
After setting a new record in the second quarter, household debt increased at the fastest pace in 15 years during Q3, as American consumers have run up credit card balances month after month this year as they cope with higher prices. Meanwhile, rising interest rates have ballooned mortgage balances.
American consumers continue to dig deeper into debt as they try to cope with rising prices using credit cards. Americans added another $25 billion to their record levels of debt in September, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve.
Jobs are on everybody’s mind as the July employment report comes out. Will the labor market show more cracks? Or will it give the pundits more room to spin the idea that we’re not really in a recession? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the labor market and breaks the July jobs data news as it comes out. He also talks about the “health” of the American consumer and gold’s flirtation with $1,800 an ounce.
