Peter's Blog

U.S. households grew more pessimistic in July, according to the latest data from the Conference Board, and investors responded by sending gold to yet another record. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June and continuing a decline that has persisted since late […]

May’s economic data tells a story that sounds good on the surface but gets more complicated the closer you look. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report Friday showing personal income climbed 0.7 percent last month, adding $181.6 billion, with disposable income rising by that same margin. Americans didn’t sit on that extra […]

Economic cross-currents, political headwinds, and an elevated gold price framed Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin’s August 12 remarks to The Health Management Academy in Chicago. Barkin told the Four Seasons crowd that U.S. real GDP expanded at just 1.2 percent during the first half of 2025, less than half last year’s 2.5 […]

The U.S. economy’s “early-warning siren” just grew louder. The Conference Board reported Monday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 percent in June to 98.8—a level not seen since 2020. The decline extends the LEI’s losing streak to 18 of the last 19 months and pushes its six-month drop to 2.8 percent. With the […]

In this week’s episode, Peter covers the dismal figures released Thursday and Friday, horrible tax policies, and the appalling lack of transparency in our government.

Inflation continues to chew up your paycheck. While consumer prices rose 0.7% in January, income from all sources, including wages, salaries, interest dividends, rental income, unemployment, Social Security, etc. was essentially flat. And when adjusted for inflation, real personal income fell by 0.5%.

Inflation bites! Personal income rose again in August, but once again rising prices ate up all the gains and then some.

Personal income is rising. But inflation is eating it up. Before factoring in inflation, personal income from all sources rose by 2.7% in July year-on-year. The month-on-month gain was a solid 1.1%. This includes wages, stimulus payments, transfer payments (unemployment, Social Security benefits, etc.) along with income from other sources such as interest, dividends, and […]

What do you do when that stimulus money runs out? You whip out the credit card. Consumer debt was up 10% in May, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, and we saw a big jump in credit card balances for the first time since February 2020.

We’re told we’re on the road to economic recovery. The $1.9 trillion stimulus is all we need to get us over the hump. But the truth is, Americans started spending like they were over the hump months ago. In fact, American consumers high on stimulus have been on a spending spree since last summer. The […]