Inflation is running hot. Economic data is running cold. Stocks and bonds are under pressure. The Fed is scrambling. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the trajectory of the economy. He said we’re on the cusp of the most obvious crisis that virtually nobody saw coming. The Federal Reserve made this bed. Now we have to lie in it.
With 2021 now in the rear-view mirror, I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.
While the history of American markets is littered with periods of irrational exuberance, none of those episodes can really match the current market for outright delusion and the blatant disregard for basic investment discipline.
After all the drama, Congress finally did what everyone knew it would do. It raised the debt ceiling by $480 billion in October. The Treasury wasted no time and quickly added $480 billion to the national debt in the second half of the month.
With this new debt tagged on, if the Fed has to raise rates to 6% to fight inflation, it would increase interest costs by $250 billion within 6 months and nearly $1 trillion within a few years. This is why the Fed must tell everyone that inflation is transitory.
Gold and bonds are both considered to be safe havens. But in a recent podcast, Peter explained why bonds are not a safe haven in an inflationary environment. In fact, bonds – including US Treasuries – are risk assets when inflation is running hot. If you want safety from inflation, you need to buy gold.
We got the highly anticipated employment report on Friday. It came in far below expectations. But despite weak economic data, bond yields are rising, along with the price of just about everything. Meanwhile, a gold rally fizzled. Peter Schiff talked about it during his podcast, explaining just how badly the markets are misinterpreting the data. When you add up plunging bonds yields, strong oil, and weak economic data – that equals stagflation.
The US government continues to borrow and spend at a torrid pace, running massive deficits month after month.
The US national debt currently stands at nearly $28.5 trillion. That doesn’t account for the trillions of unfunded liabilities. And there is no end to the spending in sight. There are trillions of dollars in new spending programs coming down the pike.
Gold faced more selling pressure this week as the mainstream continues to labor under the misguided notion that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected to deal with inflation. Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey has been arguing the Fed is not going to tighten; it’s going to ramp up quantitative easing to keep rates down. This week, he shares some insights from a mainstream analyst who gets it too.
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced plans to dramatically increase its quantitative easing program. Was this an Aussie canary in the coal mine foreshadowing what’s coming down the pike from the Federal Reserve? Peter Schiff talked about the RBA’s move in his podcast. He said, for now, the Australian central bank is doing the Fed’s dirty work.
Gold and silver continue to struggle with significant selling pressure. Last Friday, gold dropped some $40 as bond yields rose yet again. There continues to be this expectation that rising inflation and economic growth are going to force the Fed’s hand and cause it to pivot to tighter monetary policy sooner than expected. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff reminds us that inflation is not a threat to gold. And he says anybody betting against the yellow metal and on the dollar is going to lose.
Jerome Powell was on Capitol Hill this week (at least virtually) to talk to Congress. During his two days of testimony, the Fed chair insisted that there is no inflation. In fact, he claimed it will take years for the central bank to reach its 2% target. SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey says Powell is lying. But if you listen closely and read between the lines, you can dig a bit of truth out from the lies.