We talk a lot about the Federal Reserve. Its policies have a significant impact on the economy and it moves markets week after week. For instance, over the last year or so, the Fed’s “inflation fight” has created headwinds for gold and silver.
But what exactly is the Federal Reserve?
Here we go again.
The clock is ticking down to another US debt ceiling fight.
According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the US government will officially bump up against the debt ceiling Thursday (Jan. 19).
Gold posted a small gain in 2022, and it was one of the best-performing assets of the year. Nevertheless, there is still a perception in the mainstream that gold is dead. But that perception may be changing. In a recent note, Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer said gold will be a “mainstay” in portfolios over the next several years.
With the rate of increase in the CPI slowing, many people in the mainstream think the Federal Reserve is winning the war on inflation. In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff said this is wishful thinking. He said that the Fed is losing the war and it will ultimately surrender to inflation.
Schiff is not alone in his thinking. In a recent interview with The Market NZZ, investment guru Jim Grant argues that we have not seen the last of this inflationary outburst because inflation has become deeply rooted in the global financial system.
Inflation continues to eat up your paycheck.
For the 21st month in a row, average hourly earnings failed to keep up with rising prices.
The CPI data for December buoyed markets and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is winning its war against inflation. But in his podcast, Peter explained that the Fed isn’t winning the war. It is losing and will ultimately surrender to inflation.
The US government ran an $85 billion budget deficit in December, according to the Monthly Treasury Department Statement. That was much lower than November’s massive $248.5 billion shortfall, but don’t be deceived by the drop. December is typically a low deficit month. The relatively big shortfall indicates the federal government is on a trajectory to blow past the $1.38 trillion fiscal 2022 deficit.
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s Unfiltered on Fox News to talk about the economy, inflation, the stock market, the Federal Reserve and investing in 2023. Peter said the recession that everybody denies exists is going to get worse, and so is inflation.
The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$85B in December. While this was much smaller than the deficit posted in November, it marks one of the largest December deficits ever.
That pushed then 2022 calendar year deficit to over $1.4 trillion.
The CPI cooled again in December driven by a massive fall in Energy prices. As shown below, the fall in Energy has been a big reason for the recent drop in inflation. Commodities have also been a driver down as Used Cars and Trucks fell -2.5% MoM and -8.8% YoY. That said, stickier items like Shelter continue to increase.
