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Even with the taper, the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet. And it’s not tapering the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) nearly as fast as advertised.
Usually, I only do one Comex Countdown into the close, but… you know… a war just started. Throw on top the fact that the Comex has been flashing warning signs lately, and I think a daily update is warranted for the next three days. It’s very possible delivery volume is very robust which could put pressure […]
According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $245 billion in January. However, when looking at the raw, non-seasonally adjusted M2 data, the money supply contracted by $214 billion. That would be the largest contraction since Jan 2013. How do we parse out this data?
Gold and silver have both rallied in recent weeks, with the price of gold pushing to $1,900 an ounce. But is this rally sustainable? Following is some technical analysis of both the gold and silver markets.
The last article highlighted the strange things going on in the gold market. Specifically: Cash settlement instead of delivery for February Increased open interest in March Slightly higher spread cost in April. Recent weeks have seen several flashing yellow signs in the gold market.
Gold continues to flow out of COMEX vaults at a rapid pace. Inventory fell 3% in the last month alone. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail.
The US Treasury realized a monthly surplus of $118.7 billion in January. It was the first budget surplus since September 2019 and the largest since it realized a $160 billion surplus in April of 2019. The surplus was driven by high revenue from a continued surge in Individual Taxes. This was combined with shrinking expenditures […]
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for January was 0.65% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.48%. Both of these numbers came in above expectations. As hypothesized last month, it was very possible that Omicron temporarily restrained inflation in December and a rebound should be expected. It did not take long for […]
In December 2021, the US ran up a total trade deficit of -$80.7 billion, just a tick shy of the record -$80.8 billion set in September. The Goods Deficit increased by 3.2% to come in at -$101.4B, eclipsing the -$100B mark for the first time ever. This capped off a year in which the trade […]
As reported last week, multiple data points in the COMEX are starting to flash yellow in the gold market. Cash settlements are at a recent high, open interest has spiked in March to way above normal, and roll costs are creeping up. Are these tremors in the gold market?
