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The US continues to run massive trade deficits. Despite the lack of interest in the mainstream, trade deficits matter. And as Peter Schiff said last fall, we can’t just ignore these trade deficits forever. February did not set a new monthly trade deficit record, but it was very close, and it was worse than projected.
There is a correlation between Managed Money activity and the price of gold. Managed Money net longs str down from their March peak. This indicates there is money on the sideline that could rush into the market if gold breaks through current resistance Please note: the COTs report was published 4/1/2022 for the period ending […]
According to the BLS, the economy added 431k jobs in March. February was revised up to 750k from an original 678k. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. It would appear this was another strong jobs report. But when you did into the data, it’s not that clear-cut.
It appears quantitative easing has pretty much come to an end. At least for now. Although the Fed was still expanding the balance sheet through mid-month, it only added a net $9B to the balance sheet during March. This was accomplished with moderate purchases of short- and long-term debt, while 5–10-year notes had a $20B […]
Based on COMEX data, gold is set to have another strong month in April, which is not surprising given the lead-up.
The big action in silver occurred early in the month, making March a pretty large outlier. First, it continues the recent trend of increasing deliveries. Second, deliveries were 8.7% of the max open interest for the month. This is the highest percentage since July 2020 when prices took off. There are still 24 open interest […]
No doubt, money supply growth is decelerating but is still far from contractionary. According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $83billion in February. January was revised down from $245 billion to $176 billion.
Data coming from the COMEX could indicate growing pressure for a breakout in gold and silver. COMEX data has shown large deviations for several months. Most of this occurred before Russia invaded Ukraine and these deviations have grown larger since. The invasion seems to have accelerated trends that were already in place.
Gold is currently tucked between fragile support and weak resistance. Both gold and silver have been on a wild ride for the past several weeks. The last technical analysis showed how gold had broken through the lengthy consolidation pattern between $1750-$1800, with the Ukraine crisis pushing the metal through $1900.
Banks are in the process of restocking gold at a pace not seen in years. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of […]
