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This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Tax revenues have been on the rise for about 18 months. As speculated previously, if this windfall was temporary, it would have shown up with a deficit in April due to a higher than normal tax returns surge. April is historically a positive month for the Treasury, but a surge in tax returns leading to […]
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for April came in higher than expectations at 0.34% MoM and 8.28% YoY. The main driver for the MoM slowdown was a fall in Energy prices.
According to the BLS, the economy added 428k jobs in April. This exactly matched the March number after it was revised down by 3k. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6%. The Labor Force Participation rate dropped from 62.4% to 62.2%. YoY, this April is up 165k jobs compared to last April.
The Treasury reduced the total debt by $27B in April. This is not atypical since Tax Day falls in April. In April 2016 and 2018, the debt shrunk $78B and $21B respectively. April 2017 and 2019 were both flat due to a debt ceiling saga. 2020 and 2021 were exceptions because the tax deadline was […]
The March trade deficit came in at -$110B. This obliterated the February record trade deficit of $90B. As the chart below shows, the trade deficit has set a record in each of the last 4 months. It was creeping upwards from -$80B to -$90B before exploding in the latest month.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. As reported last week, Comex May’s open interest activity was looking weak in silver while gold showed a mixed picture. May has been weak so far, but June continues to look strong.
Since the peak on March 8, Managed Money has reduced its Net Long positions by 60k contracts or 43%. Despite massive selling, the gold price has actually held up fairly well. The last time Managed Money net longs dropped this low in February, gold was struggling at the $1800 level, versus the struggle at $1900 […]
For the second month in a row, the Fed held true to its word and kept the balance sheet relatively flat. In aggregate, the balance sheet expanded by only $2B, though it did reach an all-time high mid-month. The drop to close out the month came as a result of $15B in mortgage-backed securities rolling […]
According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $59B in March. While the money supply is expanding, this is the slowest increase since June of 2021. It’s also almost $200B less than the $238B expansion last March.
