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The trade deficit fell in July to -$70.7 billion. It was the fourth straight month of drops. While the deficit continues to fall from all-time highs, it is very large relative to deficits prior to 2022. Despite the large 33% fall from the -$107 billion in March, the current deficit would have been an all-time […]
As highlighted last month, short positioning in gold was at the highest level since April 2019. This laid the seeds for a potential short squeeze. While a squeeze did unfold, it was brief. Sellers have regained control of the market and are driving the price back down. Please note: the COTs report was published 9/2/2022 for […]
According to the BLS, the economy added 315k jobs in August, which was on par with analyst estimates. While the job numbers continue to appear strong, a deeper look into the data shows some trends that may indicate weakness.
Is the Federal Reserve worried about the tanking mortgage and housing market? If their holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are any indication, the answer is, yes. The Fed has finally started shrinking its overall balance sheet as promised, but they are not shedding MBS according to plan.
As we round out August in the COMEX, gold delivery was strong and silver was dominated by the odd mechanizations of Bank of America.
Gold saw the largest delivery volume in 2022 with 33,593 contracts delivered so far and 244 remaining in open interest. Since 2020, only December and February last year recorded larger volumes.
Money Supply growth was positive in July at $42B but sits well below the $161B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with 5 straight months above $200B whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.
The price analysis last month concluded that the market might have seen capitulation. It suggested the FOMC and GDP could spark a short squeeze based on the overly bearish COTs report. While gold rebounded strongly, it ran into stiff resistance and more hawkish talk by the Fed. With a large pullback from recent highs, is gold about to […]
Gold and silver deliveries on the Comex have surged since March 2020. While delivery volume in 2021 and 2022 are below the massive amount seen in 2020, overall volume is very elevated compared to pre-Covid levels.
The Federal Government ran a $211B deficit in July. Except for February, this was the largest deficit since last July when the Treasury ran a deficit of $302B, and it was the second-largest July deficit ever.
