Peter's Blog

13-Week Money Supply Reaches New All-Time Low

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in March fell $257B. As the chart below shows, this is now the 8th consecutive monthly drop. Going back to the 1970s, the drop in March was actually the biggest on record on an absolute and relative basis.

Comex Update: Silver Shorts Could Be in Trouble

Silver delivery from the COMEX was low in April, but there is more to the story. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement […]

The Technicals: Is $2,000 Gold Support or Resistance?

The technical analysis last month highlighted how the current price spike looked unsustainable and needed time to consolidate. It also mentioned that we may be at a turning point in precious metals, concluding:

COMEX Update: JP Morgan on the Ropes in Gold as Silver Coverage Reaches Record Low

On the surface, everything still looks fine at the COMEX, but the data reveals more going on. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the […]

TTM Net Interest Expense Exceeds Half a Trillion Dollars

The Federal Government ran a gargantuan deficit of -$378B in March. This is over $100B larger than the massive February deficit. In the last three years, only the deficit last September was larger because the government recognized the cost of Biden’s student loan forgiveness. September aside, this month was the largest deficit month since March 2021 […]

Getting CPI Back to 2% Is a Fantasy

The CPI rose in March by 0.06%, which was less than expected. That said, as the chart below shows, the fall in Energy prices was entirely responsible for containing an otherwise high CPI.

Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories Below 12-month Trend

The BLS reported that 236k jobs were added in March. Similar to December and January, the Household survey greatly exceeded the Headline Report with 577k jobs added. The Household Survey was surprisingly strong given the current economic environment.

Trade Deficit Increases Again in February to $70.5 Billion

The February Trade Deficit increased for the third month in a row, rising by $1.9 billion. Net Goods came in at -$92.9B with Net Services at $22.4B to reach a total of -$70.5B.

CFTC CoTs Report: Price Drivers Go Beyond the Futures Market

Based on the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, the latest price action is potentially even more bullish than normal. The latest price moves have been supported by Managed Money but the data clearly shows there is more driving the upward movement. Please note: the CoTs report was published 03/31/2023 for the period ending 03/28/2023. […]

Comex Reins in Platinum but Sees Gold Deliveries Rise

Gold has been seeing a large number of contracts roll in the final day of the contract. That did not happen this month. This has resulted in a large delivery volume.