Is war and military spending really good for the economy?
A lot of people seem to think so. In fact, President Joe Biden is selling the latest proposal to send military aid to Israel and Ukraine as an economic stimulus plan. But this notion that spending money for war somehow boosts the economy is rooted in a pervasive economic fallacy.
The writing of this market report was at a time of great volatility, due to it coinciding with the speech of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The drift of it appears to be that Hezbollah will support Hamas. If so, it means an intensification of the Palestinian crisis Which would presumably drive gold and silver prices higher. This market report should be read in this context.
War broke out in the Middle East over the weekend after Hamas attacked Israel. In his podcast, Peter broke down the possible economic ramifications here in the United States. He said the US can’t afford peace, much less war.
January saw another record trade deficit.
The $89.7 billion deficit shattered the $82 billion record set in December by 9.4%! Before March 2021, the Trade Deficit monthly record had been set in August 2006 at -$68B. This record stood for nearly 15 years! Records are now being broken almost every single month.
Usually, I only do one Comex Countdown into the close, but… you know… a war just started. Throw on top the fact that the Comex has been flashing warning signs lately, and I think a daily update is warranted for the next three days.
It’s very possible delivery volume is very robust which could put pressure on the physical market. I will keep the commentary light and the charts simple…
The war drums have quieted for the time being. But while the threat of a hot war seems to have diminished, economic warfare continues. President Trump announced another round of economic sanctions on Iran.
We have written extensively how about how the US weaponizes the dollar and uses it as a foreign policy tool. This is one of the reasons many central banks are buying gold. The flip side of that equation is also true. The US government uses the military to support the dollar – specifically by controlling oil resources.
In his latest podcast, Peter talks about sudden silencing of the war drums, the risk that remains in the markets, the stealth bull market in gold, the risk of a socialist president, rampant economic illiteracy, inflation and more.
As Peter put it – what a difference 48 hours makes.
Over the last year, we’ve talked a lot about geopolitical risk. Could turmoil around the world now be the new normal?
Some analysts think so.