The Federal Reserve wrapped up another FOMC meeting with a whole lot of talk and very little action. Interest rates remain at zero and quantitative easing continues unabated. The mainstream headlines are all focusing on the prospect of QE tapering. In this episode, Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains why he’d write a completely different headline about this Fed meeting.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex as we move from September into October. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The silver-gold ratio has ballooned again, indicating that silver is once again a bargain buy.
During a gold bull market, silver typically outperforms gold. We saw this during the big runup in the price of both metals through the early months of the pandemic. In the third quarter of last year, silver charted its best quarter since 2010, finishing up 27.62% through the three months ending Sept. 30. Going back further, silver spiked 106.6% off its March 2020 low.
Gold and silver have both significantly drained from the Comex inventory since August 1.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
CPI data came in slightly cooler than expected for August, giving new energy to the “transitory” inflation narrative. But can we really trust these numbers? In this episode, Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey takes a deep dive into the CPI and considers this question. He also touches on the big gold sell-off Thursday sparked by surprisingly good retail sales numbers.
The latest seasonally adjusted month-over-month inflation rate was 0.3% (vs. .4% expected), with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3% (vs 5.4% expected). The reason for the fall from July’s .47% pace was spread across multiple categories, specifically Commodities, Food, Shelter, and Transportation.
While the CPI drop-off since the June peak appears to prove the Fed narrative of “transitory” inflation, a deep dive into the numbers shows why the Eccles building should keep the champagne on ice for the moment. Much of the recent pullback can be explained by the economy shutting down again in response to Delta. (more on this below).
The Federal Budget Deficit for August 2021 was $171B which was down from the $302B in July. The chart below shows the Federal Budget for the previous 18 months.
The government is always promising to fix things. It has policies to fix the economy, fix foreign countries, and even fix the pandemic. But as Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey explains in this episode, instead of fixing things, the government wrecks pretty much everything it touches.
The Treasury bumped up against the debt ceiling at the end of July. Since then, it has been using “extraordinary measures” to allow the Government to keep hemorrhaging cash without having to increase the debt ceiling.
The chart below shows the month-over-month change in debt for August equal to $0. Despite zero net change, there are two important facts to highlight.
- The Treasury continued converting short term debt to long term
- Nonmarketable debt holdings shrunk by $257B
The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COTs) report is released once a week and shows a breakdown of open interest by trader category. The CFTC breaks down open interest by:
- Managed Money (e.g. Hedge Funds)
- Producers (e.g. gold mining companies)
- Swaps (e.g. banks)
- Non-Reportable
- Other
