Please note: the COTs report was published 10/1/2021 for the period ending 9/28/2021. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders analysis last month showed a potentially bullish setup in both gold and silver. The washout of Managed Money Net Long contracts that occurred in early August appeared to be over and a rebound was underway. Unfortunately, it looks like there was another washout in September. As highlighted recently, it’s possible exhaustion may be near. However, if another washout occurs, it would probably drive Managed Money net positioning negative for the first time since Nov 2018.
Below is a look at the details.
As we move into October, physical silver delivery is down on Comex while gold was a mixed bag.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The Fed keeps talk, talk, talking about tapering quantitative easing, but the balance sheet continues to get bigger and bigger and bigger.
The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.45 trillion, up by$115 billion from the prior month-end.
(October 1, 2021) – Beginning today, you will no longer have to pay sales tax when you buy gold and silver in the state of Ohio.
Last summer, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed a bill into law that exempts gold and silver bullion and coins from sales tax. This will not only relieve some of the tax burdens on investors in the state; it will also take a step toward treating gold and silver as money instead of as commodities.
Even as the Fed talked about tightening monetary policy, the money supply grew at the fastest pace since last winter.
In the latest period, M2 increased by $263 billion. This is a major jump compared to the last two months and is the highest month-over-month growth since February. The same period in 2020 saw M2 only grow $62B.
One of the major technical indicators for investors is the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) vs the 200 DMA. This analysis examines these moving averages for both gold and silver along with other technical indicators.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up another FOMC meeting with a whole lot of talk and very little action. Interest rates remain at zero and quantitative easing continues unabated. The mainstream headlines are all focusing on the prospect of QE tapering. In this episode, Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains why he’d write a completely different headline about this Fed meeting.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex as we move from September into October. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The silver-gold ratio has ballooned again, indicating that silver is once again a bargain buy.
During a gold bull market, silver typically outperforms gold. We saw this during the big runup in the price of both metals through the early months of the pandemic. In the third quarter of last year, silver charted its best quarter since 2010, finishing up 27.62% through the three months ending Sept. 30. Going back further, silver spiked 106.6% off its March 2020 low.
Gold and silver have both significantly drained from the Comex inventory since August 1.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.