December gold is having the weakest major delivery month since February. This is surprising given the recent strength in gold and considering that last December saw quite a large number of contracts deliver (36k). I commented on this a few weeks ago, suggesting that the lower volume was a result of thinner supplies. I think the silver shortage is well underway and it is just starting in gold. This is why gold is showing signs that silver showed 6-12 months ago.
Are the people who are predicting a big economic crash right? Or are they just crying wolf? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey explains why it’s hard to predict the exact timing of a crash even if you’re certain it’s on the horizon. He also talks about a couple of news items this week that caused the price of gold to yo-yo.
‘Tis the season for Christmas specials.
I’m not going to lie – even as a grown man, I love watching Christmas specials. Snoopy decorating his dog house. The Grinch folding up the Christmas tree like an umbrella and stuffing it up the chimney. And Frosty the snowman melting in the greenhouse.
The drainage of silver from Comex vaults since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day gyrations of the market, pronouncements of certain government or central bank officials, and the most recent data dump. So, it’s important to keep your eye on the ball. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the latest inflation data and the Fed meeting with his eye firmly focused on that ball.
Before digging into history, let’s look at the recent data. The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for November came in at 0.08%. The YoY rate was 7.17%, below median forecast of 7.3%.
The Federal Government ran a deficit of $249 billion in November. This is the highest monthly deficit since July 2021 if you ignore the one-time student loan forgiveness-driven deficit in September.
Mark Twain once said there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. The government excels in all three. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the recent jobs data. He reveals that the numbers just don’t add up and explains why the labor market might not be as awesome as the mainstream keeps telling you. He also talks about the newest data on central bank gold buying.
The October Trade Deficit increased for the second month in a row to $78.2B. The Deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the pull from the SPR has slowed in recent weeks.
The Treasury added $175B in new debt during November, hitting the debt ceiling of $31.4T. New debt issuance was focused on the short end of the curve with $145B in Treasury Bills issued.
