The Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates to over 5%. At the most recent FOMC meeting, it indicated that it may have to hold rates higher for longer. But the mainstream remains unconcerned. The narrative is that the Fed has successfully raised rates to fight inflation and is now guiding the economy to a “soft landing.”
In a nutshell, the mainstream financial media seems convinced the US economy has dodged a recession. Meanwhile, the average American seems less than convinced.
So, who’s right?
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Nino’s Corner with David Nino Rodriguez to talk about the trajectory of the economy. Peter explained why the dollar is doomed to crash and what we can do to prepare. He also emphasized that the powers that be have managed to kick the can down the road for a lot longer than he expected. But you can’t kick the can down the road forever. Eventually, you will run out of road.
There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve can slay price inflation while guiding the economy to a “soft landing.” In fact, Fed economists now project the US economy will not spin into a recession. Other mainstream pundits and prognosticators have taken up this narrative. But there are plenty of reasons to doubt it.
Since price inflation took off in the wake of pandemic-era stimulus, Americans have blown through their savings and run up their credit cards to make ends meet. Now they’re starting to have a hard time paying those credit card bills.
The number of Americans rolling credit card debt from month to month is now higher than the number of people paying their bills in full for the first time ever.
There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve can successfully slay price inflation and bring the economy to a soft landing. After all, the economy appears to be chugging along. But as Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains, there are a lot of things bubbling under the surface that should temper that optimism. In fact, what we’re seeing today looks a lot like 2007.
Good news! The recession is off!
For months, economists predicted the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes to fight price inflation would spin the US economy into a recession. But there is a growing consensus that the central bank can slay price inflation while guiding the economy to a “soft landing.”
Economists Bob Murphy and Jonathan Newman say, “Not so fast!”
Flashing another recession warning sign, credit card spending suddenly fell off a cliff in June.
American consumers have been using credit cards to make ends meet for months, but with credit card debt at record levels, rising interest rates appear to have slammed the door on spending. Credit card debt contracted in June for the first time since April 2021, according to the most recent data released by the Federal Reserve.
Is price inflation really heading back toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target?
Most people in the mainstream seem to think so, and the recent drop in the consumer price index (CPI) appears to support this belief. Price inflation has trended downward over the last several months, with the annual CPI falling from a high of 9% last year to just 3% in July. But I don’t think the Fed has won the inflation fight and I don’t believe the central bank’s sanguine inflation outlook is correct.
I think easing price inflation is transitory.
Good news. The looming US recession has been canceled.
Or has it?
Janet Yellen recently said she doesn’t think the US economy will slip into a recession. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains why he doesn’t think we should put a lot of stock on Janet’s prognostications, and he goes on to point out some major fissures in the economy and financial system that are opening up under the surface.
