Last week we got the updated federal budget deficit numbers. At $867 billion, the 2019 fiscal year budget shortfall has already eclipsed last year’s deficit of $779 billion.
The out of control spending and spiraling deficits are concerning enough on their own terms, but they become absolutely horrifying when you consider that these budget shortfalls are happening during an economic expansion. You would normally expect numbers like this during a major recession.
That raises an important question: what’s going to happen when the recession hits?
Peter Schiff appeared on Fox Business After the Bell last week after the yield curve inverted and the Dow dove 800 points. Peter said the looming economic disaster for the US will turn into a political disaster for Pres. Trump.
Peter started out the interview asserting that everything the Federal Reserve has done since the 2008 financial crisis was a mistake.
The bond market flashed a major recession warning sign as the yield curve inverted this week. Meanwhile, Trump whipsawed markets when he appeared to blink in the never-ending trade war with China. That made for an interesting week for gold. In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the events of the last few days and their impact on precious metals. He also remembers an important day in history that went mostly unnoticed in the mainstream.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below the yield on the 2-year for the first time in 12 years, stoking recession fears and tanking stock markets.
Yield curve inversions have preceded all nine recessions since 1955. This was the first time the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below the 2-year yield since June 2007 – the cusp of the Great Recession.
The gold market took a one-two punch on Tuesday as Trump made some concessions in the trade war and inflation numbers came in a bit higher than expected. Peter Schiff talked about it in his latest podcast, saying gold traders still don’t understand the gold rally.
Ever since the beginning of the “Powell Pause,” Peter Schiff has been saying it won’t be enough.
If the Fed doesn’t want to upset the markets, soon it will be forced to go back to QE and zero percent interest rates.”
Peter isn’t alone in saying this. After the most recent FOMC meeting, Ryan McMaken at the Mises Institute echoed Peter’s message.
Put simply: the days of quantitative easing are back, and we’re not even in a recession yet.”
On Friday, the yield curve inverted, often a warning sign of an impending recession. Many mainstream pundits say we shouldn’t be concerned about the inversion and that the US economy is still healthy. They say there are other underlying reasons for the inverted yield curve. But there are plenty of other economic data points that are flashing recession warnings. For instance, inventories are piling up in warehouses.
Wholesale inventories surged again in January, according to the latest Commerce Department data.
Peter Schiff has said a recession is a done deal. Since he made that comment, we’ve seen more and more signs of a looming economic downturn. On Friday, we got another. The yield curve inverted, historically a sign of a looming recession.
The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell below the yield on 3-year bonds for the first time since 2007 – the cusp of the Great Recession.
Not too long ago, Peter Schiff said, “The rate hikes of the past have already guaranteed that the economy is headed for recession. It doesn’t matter whether they continue to raise rates in the future. The recession is a done deal.”
In a recent interview, economist and editor of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, Dr. Marc Faber, expressed a similar sentiment, saying, “Forget about the coming slowdown because the economy has already been backing up for months and we’re likely already in a recession.”
Even as the Federal Reserve and the financial news network pundits continue to dangle the prospect of a booming economy in front of us, we’re seeing more and more bad news that undermines this narrative and reveals the rotting foundation of the US economy. The wholesale inventory report that came out yesterday is the latest gloomy example.
