Are we heading toward housing crisis 2.0?
That remains to be seen.
Two things are for certain. This is a massive housing bubble. And the Fed is holding the pin.
The Federal Reserve is helping corporate real estate investors evict poor people from mobile home parks.
With the stimulus checks long ago spent, Americans have gone back to buying things the old-fashioned way – on credit.
Household debt surged by $313 billion in the second quarter to nearly $15 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household Debt and Credit Report. It was the biggest quarterly dollar increase in household debt since 2007. In percentage terms, household debt grew by 2.1%, the biggest surge since Q4 2013.
Despite the “improving economy,” subprime mortgage delinquencies remain at record high levels. And the full extent of the problem is masked by forbearance programs.
The delinquency rate on FHA mortgages spiked to 17.5% in February. That was up from 17.0% in January and equals the all-time record set in September and November of 2020, according to AEI’s Housing Center.
Millions of Americans remain out of work. The US economy continues to languish, burdened by government lockdowns and other pandemic-related factors. Retail sales have dropped precipitously over the last several months, underscoring the economic malaise. So, how is it that the housing market is booming?
This is not the ideal time to own an apartment building. Millions are struggling to pay rent and despite the extension of the federal eviction moratorium through Jan. 31 in the latest stimulus bill, a lot of people will likely face eviction in the coming months. According to data released in November, 17 million households are behind on rent or mortgage payments.
Of course, this has a trickle-down effect. If renters can’t pay their rent, that makes it difficult for apartment building owners to keep up with their mortgage payments. If they default, who’s on the hook?
Increasingly, the US taxpayer.
Even as market mania continues over hopes for a coronavirus vaccine, the economic devastation caused by the government response to the pandemic continues to ravage the economy. Seventeen million households are behind on rent or mortgage payments, and nearly 6 million Americans say they are at risk of eviction in the next few months.
Total household debt was over $1.6 trillion higher than the previous peak in 2008 even before the full force of the coronavirus pandemic government shutdowns hit the economy.
Household debt increased by $155 billion (1.1%) in Q1 to a total of $14.3 trillion, according to the latest data released by the New York Fed. The previous peak was $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of ’08 in the early days of the financial crisis.
The national debt has pushed above the $22 trillion mark, but it’s not just Uncle Sam borrowing himself into oblivion. US household debt climbed to a record $13.54 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Total household debt (including mortgages) now stands $869 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008 (right before the crash) and 21.4% above the post-financial-crisis trough reached in the second quarter of 2013.
What Can Mortgage Refi Applications Tell You About the Economy? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap 06.01.18
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