The Federal Reserve doesn’t have a very good track record. It was wrong about transitory inflation. It was wrong about peak inflation. And it’s almost certainly wrong in thinking the economy is strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy to fight inflation.
But President Joe Biden trusts the Fed. The cornerstone of his inflation-fighting plan is to recognize the central bank “has the primary responsibility to control inflation.” He took a shot at President Trump for “demeaning” the Fed. On the other hand, Biden said he will respect the Fed and its independence.
Inflation wasn’t transitory.
And inflation hasn’t peaked.
It’s more like peak inflation was transitory.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May came out this morning. The projection was for another hot headline number but some relief in core CPI. This would seem to indicate we’ve passed peak inflation. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharey explains why “good news” in the CPI data would be bad news for inflation. Then he reacts to the data in real-time. (Hint — it wasn’t good news.)
Everybody was thrilled to get stimulus checks in the mail during the COVID-19 pandemic. “It’s free money!” many exclaimed. But nothing in life is free. This includes “free” things handed out by the government.
So today, you’re paying for those stimmy checks and the government pandemic spending spree.
Why haven’t gold and silver rallied as one would expect in such a high inflation environment? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey delves into some of the psychology driving the markets and explains why it could be blinding people to just how serious the economic situation has become. He also reports some news that indicates some people may be starting to figure it out.
When the Federal Reserve tinkers with interest rates, it creates all kinds of economic distortions. This is very obvious in the housing market. Over the last couple of years, the Fed blew up a giant housing bubble. Now, the central bank has pricked that bubble. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey looks at the housing market as a microcosm of the broader economy.
There is all kinds of spin out there when it comes to inflation. Peter Schiff recently appeared on News Nation to talk about the economy. He explained that the spin misses the mark. The real source of inflation isn’t the pandemic or Putin. It’s the Federal Reserve.
People come up with all kinds of excuses for inflation. First, they told us there was no inflation. Then they insisted that it was transitory. Then they claimed it was caused by greedy corporations. Later they shifted the blame to Putin. But none of this gets to the root cause of inflation – the expansion of the money supply by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve has talked a lot about fighting inflation. But what has it actually done?
In practice, not a lot. It has nudged interest rates up 75 basis points. And while the Fed has ended the massive quantitative easing program that it ran during the pandemic, it pushed balance sheet reduction back from May until June. In fact, the balance sheet has crept upward throughout the entire month of May.
There is a lot of spin out there when it comes to economic news. You get spin from the corporate media, You get spin from government officials. And you get spin from central bankers. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey spins the spin, breaking down the media take on the retail sales numbers and Jerome Powell’s spin during a talk this week. Whom should we believe? Listen and decide.
