A lot of the economic data this month looks strong. But when you dig a little deeper, you find that this “strength” is an illusion.
Following is a breakdown of several of these data points with some help from our friends at Passant Gardant.
Every month, we get government job reports that tell us the labor market is booming. Then we get an avalanche of mainstream headlines telling us that this is a sign the economy is just fine.
But these government job numbers simply don’t make sense.
The BLS reported that a whopping 339,000 jobs were added in May. This crushed median estimates of 190,000 jobs added. The Household Survey tells a very different story though, reporting a loss of 310,000 jobs.
President Biden has announced he will run for a second term in 2024. Peter Schiff recently appeared on the Ingraham Angle on Fox News to talk about what will happen if we keep going down the Biden road. In a nutshell, Peter said we can’t afford to let Biden “finish the job.”
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Real America with Dan Ball to talk about the weakening US dollar, the less-than-stellar jobs report, and the trajectory of the economy.
Peter kicked off the interview with a startling statement when Dan said whether it’s oil, de-dollarization, or President Biden’s horrible economic policies, everything is pointing toward a recession this year.
The dollar rallied and gold sold off on Monday after the March labor report came in at expectations and comments by the new Bank of Japan governor indicated he plans to continue the country’s ultra-loose monetary policy. In his podcast, Peter explains how traders continued to get both jobs and inflation wrong.
The BLS reported that 236k jobs were added in March. Similar to December and January, the Household survey greatly exceeded the Headline Report with 577k jobs added. The Household Survey was surprisingly strong given the current economic environment.
As discussed last month, it is getting harder to take all the BLS employment data as fact. This month, some of the data is a bit closer in line, but the QECW report seemed to show a big deviation (more below).
You’ve probably heard the saying that history might not repeat, but it often rhymes. If that’s true, looking back at the runup to the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession should cause concern. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey looks at some of the parallels between then and now. He also digs deeper into the January jobs report and explains why you should be skeptical.
If you have any skepticism of government narratives at all, you have to question last week’s non-farm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Given the number of layoffs and the general slowing of the economy, the notion that 517,000 jobs were created in January just doesn’t make sense.
Turns out that your skepticism is warranted.
