Is inflation transitory, as Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has claimed for months? Or are we on the verge of hyperinflation, as Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey recently warned? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks inflation, digs into the data, and concludes that it’s pretty clear we’re in an inflationary spiral.
The recovery in the Indian gold market remained on track in September with strong imports and investment demand.
India imported 89.5 tons of gold in September, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council. While that was down 21% from the five-month high we saw in August, it was still far above the import totals in September 2020 as the response to COVID-19 ravaged the Indian economy. It was also significantly above import totals in September 2019 — prior to the coronavirus pandemic.
The analysis last month showed that selling exhaustion may be near in the gold market. Since then, gold continues to be range-bound between $1750 and $1800 running up against both solid resistance and support. Meanwhile, silver has shown a mini-breakout.
The $1800 level for gold is in play this week and could open the door for a big move if it gets through it soon.
Both gold and silver are seeing quieter activity in Comex contracts. This is not atypical for October and November which are slow months in the lead up to December.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey answers listener questions. Some of the topics covered include bitcoin, fractional reserve banking, the silver/gold ratio, gold as a safe haven, precious metals in a crisis, and more.
Gold and bonds are both considered to be safe havens. But in a recent podcast, Peter explained why bonds are not a safe haven in an inflationary environment. In fact, bonds – including US Treasuries – are risk assets when inflation is running hot. If you want safety from inflation, you need to buy gold.
Gold demand in China was up in September, as the country approaches a peak gold-buying season.
Both gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in September and gold imports in August were up, a sign that the Chinese gold market continues to recover after it was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.
Both physical gold and silver have been draining from Comex vaults this year. There was a 1% decline in stocks of both metals over the last month.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Last week’s jobs numbers came in weaker than expected. September’s CPI came in hotter than expected. That puts the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place. Does it tighten monetary policy to fight inflation? Or does it keep stimulating to boost the economy? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the data and says it’s about time for the central bank to pick its poison.
Inflation continues to run hot. Even some of the folks over at the Fed are having a hard time peddling the “transitory” inflation narrative. But politicians and government officials lack the skill of self-reflection. As a result, they can’t clearly see the problem. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey looks at some of the latest inflation data and the Fed’s response to it. He also touches on the fake debt ceiling fight and breaks the September job report numbers.
