It’s all capitalisms fault!
At least that’s the narrative you get from the political left, and quite frankly, not infrequently from the political right.
Friday was an active day in the markets. The S&P 500, the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq all hit record highs. The Dow Jones didn’t quite crack into record territory, but it was up over 100 points. Meanwhile, the dollar fell and gold was up more than $20.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said he thinks the dovish speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole drove all of this. And it could have longer-term ramifications.
We are well into the third quarter of 2018. In our perpetual fast-forward world, analysts are already looking toward Q4. What will the last quarter of the year bring?
It’s virtually impossible to predict the short-term. Who knows what kind of political event, natural disaster or emerging trend will drive the markets over the next few months?
Of course, we can’t predict the future at all. We’re not fortune tellers or Old Testament prophets, but as Dan Kurz notes in his latest post at DK Analytics, it is a bit easier to project what will happen to the economy in the long run because we can clearly see the big-picture dynamics and fundamentals underlying it. As he put it, he’s less sure where America is headed in Q4 than ‘down the road’ in general. The whole thing (political, financial, economic) could fall apart at any time.”
One of the biggest enduring economic myths is the notion that the minimum wage laws only help workers and have no real negative effects. The fallacy inherent in this line of thinking becomes immediately clear if we simply propose a $1,000 per hour minimum wage. After all, if $15 is good, $1,000 would be fantastic, right?
Of course, nobody would pay somebody $1,000 per hour to perform a low-skill task. It’s obviously unaffordable. A $15 per hour minimum is just as unaffordable.
I was on vacation last week, so there wasn’t any Fun on Friday. But I am back, and I have some really fantastic news for you – especially if you live in Venezuela. And even if you don’t reside in that South American hell-hole, you’ll want to keep reading because the ramifications here are huugggee!
Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro fixed the country’s hyperinflation problem.
Last month, we reported that the global yield curve inverted, signaling the possibility of a looming recession. While narrowing to levels not seen since right before the 2008 financial crisis, the yield curve has not inverted in the US. In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said he doesn’t think it’s going to happen. He said we may even see a steepening yield curve in the coming months. But this is not because there’s not going to be a recession.
Gold got off to a roaring start in 2018, with the price rising more than 4% during the first quarter. But the yellow metal finished June down the same amount and has continued to fall during July. Despite the weakness in gold over the last couple of months, the World Gold Council says several factors provide some optimism for the rest of the year. In its mid-year outlook report, the WGC pinpointed three primary macro trends that will likely boost gold in the coming months
The price of gold has languished in recent weeks. After falling below $1,300 in May, the yellow metal has hit 2018 lows this month. Dollar strength along with the anticipation of further Federal Reserve rate hikes have bolstered the dollar and weighed on gold.
Peter Schiff has been saying this dollar strength is merely an upward correction in a bear market. Peter’s not alone in this view. Some mainstream analysts have even acknowledged the dollar surge is likely temporary.
So what about the gold market? Should we just give up on it? Well, as we’ve pointed out, fundamentals point to an overall healthy market for the yellow metal. And we’re not alone in our thinking. An article in the Economic Times of India points out three reasons gold will likely come out of its slumber. Interestingly, we’ve touched on all three of the factors this article mentions.