Last month, US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes offered three reasons he thinks the gold might hit $1,500 per ounce this year. His number one reason was rising inflation. In a recent interview on Bloomberg Radio, Holmes reiterated that high inflation looks good for gold in the near future. He also pointed out that whether you look at things from a long-term or short-term perspective, gold had done exactly what it is supposed to within an overall portfolio.
Inflation is low – so we’re told. But this simply isn’t true.
Now, it is true that the consumer price index (CPI) has remained relatively low. But rising prices aren’t in-and-of themselves inflation. In fact, we can have inflation without a corresponding rise in CPI – at least in the short-term. That’s exactly what we’ve had over the last decade. We’ve had rampant inflation, but it hasn’t manifested in broad-based rising prices – yet.
Last month, US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes said he thinks gold may well hit $1,500 this year. He listed the specter of increasing inflation, a weakening dollar, and income growth in China and India as three reasons to be bullish on the yellow metal.
This week, Holmes appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and continued to make a case for buying gold.
Yesterday, we reported that some of the big mainstream players in the investment world, including Goldman Sachs, have suddenly gone bullish on gold. They aren’t alone. US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes said he thinks the yellow metal might hit $1,500 per ounce this year.
Even with the headwinds caused by Federal Reserve monetary tightening, gold has had a pretty good start to 2018. It’s up close to 3% on the year. In fact, gold is one of the best-performing assets so far this year. As of March 23, gold had outperformed the dollar index, the S&P 500, US Treasuries and the Bloomberg Commodity Index.
The Federal Reserve followed its script yesterday and raised interest rates another 25 basis points. But the central bankers did surprise some people by hinting at just two more hikes this year. Analysts have been fixated on the possibility of four 2018 rate increases.
The Fed’s slightly more dovish tone on rate hikes sent gold climbing. The yellow metal gained about 1% in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting.
Nevertheless, even while dampening expectations of faster tightening, the Fed continued to talk up the economy. In fact, the central bankers project continuing rate hikes all the way into 2020. In his most recent podcast, Peter said the Fed sounded even more optimistic about the economy than it has in the past. He called it “all politics,” designed to maintain the illusion that everything is great.
The new Fed chairman has swooped into Washington D.C. like a hawk this week.
In his first testimony before Congress, Powell talked up the economy. He’s also indicated he plans to continue pushing interest rates higher. In fact, many analysts are now talking about four rate hikes in 2018, with the first on tap for this month. Powell said his personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December, and he sees little risk for a recession.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said Powell couldn’t be more wrong.
The federal debt keeps climbing upward and there is no indication that this has raised even a slight concern in Washington D.C.
We’ve been focusing a lot on the federal debt in recent weeks. We’ve explained that debt is a cancer on economic growth. We’ve raised the question: who is going to buy all of the Treasuries the government will have to sell to finance all of the debt. And we’ve talked about the impact of rising bond yields on the US budget as the cost of servicing the massive debt rises.
There’s a lot of bearish economic news when you factor the federal debt into the equation. But the spiraling debt might actually be bearish for gold. In fact, over the last two decades, there is a positive correlation between increased federal debt and the price of gold.
The dollar has shown some resilience this week. The dollar index clawed back after hitting multi-year lows last week. Meanwhile, gold saw its worst single-day decline in more than a year on Tuesday.
One thing that hasn’t changed is the upward pressure on bond yields. In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said he thinks this is the reason we’re still seeing some life in the dollar and downward pressure on gold.
Inflation came in hotter than expected at 2.1%. A CNBC report said the number “pushes the economy toward a potential danger zone for inflation.”
Analysts had expected January inflation to come in at 0.3, after being up by 0.1 the previous month. Instead, the December number was revised up to 0.2 and January came in at 0.5. As Peter Schiff pointed out in his podcast, if you multiply 0.5 by 12 months, it comes to 6% inflation per year.
In his Feb. 16 Liberty Report, Ron Paul talked about inflation and its effect on everyday Americans. He said when it comes to this subject, the mainstream is all mixed up. More significantly, the creation of new money doesn’t impact everybody equally. Some benefit at the expense of others.