Based on COMEX data, gold is set to have another strong month in April, which is not surprising given the lead-up.
As the ruble collapsed under the strain of economic sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Russian people turned to gold to protect their wealth.
Russians went on a gold-buying spree in the first couple of weeks after the invasion.
The big action in silver occurred early in the month, making March a pretty large outlier. First, it continues the recent trend of increasing deliveries. Second, deliveries were 8.7% of the max open interest for the month. This is the highest percentage since July 2020 when prices took off. There are still 24 open interest contracts remaining.
The Fed threw a pretty weak first punch at inflation with a quarter-point interest rate hike last week. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell followed up with some tough talk this week. The question is what will he do when the economy punches him in the face? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about Powell’s attempt to bully inflation and if it might backfire.
No doubt, money supply growth is decelerating but is still far from contractionary.
According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $83billion in February. January was revised down from $245 billion to $176 billion.
Data coming from the COMEX could indicate growing pressure for a breakout in gold and silver.
COMEX data has shown large deviations for several months. Most of this occurred before Russia invaded Ukraine and these deviations have grown larger since. The invasion seems to have accelerated trends that were already in place.
Gold is currently tucked between fragile support and weak resistance.
Both gold and silver have been on a wild ride for the past several weeks. The last technical analysis showed how gold had broken through the lengthy consolidation pattern between $1750-$1800, with the Ukraine crisis pushing the metal through $1900.
Banks are in the process of restocking gold at a pace not seen in years.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Over the past couple of weeks, I have focused on the activity at the Comex for the upcoming delivery months. While the data still supports a very bullish near-term posture as shown below, aggressive longs should consider when and how margin rates could be used to rein in prices.
The Fed launched its much-anticipated war on inflation this week. It wasn’t much of a first strike. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the Fed meeting and what might come next. He also touches on the possibility of a “petroyuan.”
