The federal government ran a $220 billion deficit in August. It was the largest monthly deficit since last July.
We got the August CPI data this week and it came in hotter than expected. Stocks suffered a big selloff. Everybody is betting on the Fed to get even more aggressive in its inflation fight. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the data and exposes a dirty little secret that the mainstream still hasn’t come to grips with.
The CPI data for August came in hotter than expected, sparking the biggest market crash since the 2020 COVID lockdowns. The price of gold also dropped on the news in anticipation of the Federal Reserve taking interest rates higher. Peter Schiff talked about the inflation news on his podcast and said investors need to get gold now before the entry point rises a lot higher. Because at some point the markets are going to figure the Fed can’t bend this inflation curve.
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for August came in nearly flat again at 0.09% MoM, dropping to 8.3% YoY. Expectations had been for -0.1% MoM and 8.1% YoY so the market had a very negative reaction to the report.
The recent death of Queen Elizabeth II is squeezing gold and silver bullion coin markets that were already strained by tight supplies.
There was an immediate and dramatic surge in demand for gold and silver bullion coins bearing the queen’s effigy upon her passing. According to News.com.au in Australia, “Collectors are scrambling to get their hands on coins with Queen Elizabeth’s face as prices skyrocket after her death.”
This week was the calm before the storm that will begin next week with the August CPI data and continue with the September FOMC meeting the following week. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey takes advantage of the lull to cover some interesting topics including some more tough talk on inflation from Jerome Powell, the prospect of the Fed recording its first operating loss since 2023, and silver on sale.
The Treasury added $341B of debt in August. This was the largest increase in the debt since January and is more than 10 times larger than the increase in July. Another major occurrence was the increase in short-term debt. The Treasury increased Bills by $210B, the largest increase since June 2020. This is a move that runs counter to the recent months where the Treasury has been actively decreasing short-term holdings.
The trade deficit fell in July to -$70.7 billion. It was the fourth straight month of drops. While the deficit continues to fall from all-time highs, it is very large relative to deficits prior to 2022. Despite the large 33% fall from the -$107 billion in March, the current deficit would have been an all-time record as recently as last June. It is also larger than July 2021.
Central banks’ appetite for gold remained robust in July according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.
Globally, central banks added a net of 37 tons of gold to their reserves, bringing the total purchases on the year close to 300 tons.
As highlighted last month, short positioning in gold was at the highest level since April 2019. This laid the seeds for a potential short squeeze. While a squeeze did unfold, it was brief. Sellers have regained control of the market and are driving the price back down.
Please note: the COTs report was published 9/2/2022 for the period ending 8/30/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
