Physical metal has continued to drain from COMEX vaults. This is particularly true for silver, which now has 17.4 paper ounces for every registered ounce.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Although gold has been one of the best-performing assets in 2022, it has faced significant headwinds due to rising interest rates and a strong dollar. Members of a panel discussion during the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) annual precious metals conference agreed that gold and silver prices may still face headwinds in the near term as investors continue to anticipate an aggressive Federal Reserve fight against inflation. But they were bullish on the long-term potential of the precious metals market.
Gold is migrating from the West to the East.
As Bloomberg described it, many western investors – particularly at the institutional level – are dumping bullion. Meanwhile, Asian buyers are taking advantage of lower prices to snap up less expensive jewelry, coins, and bars.
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came out on Thursday. Once again, it was “hotter than expected,” despite the Federal Reserve hiking rates by over 3% since March. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the CPI data in the context of the Fed’s inflation fight and concludes “this is what losing looks like.”
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for September came in at 0.38%, dropping to 8.25% YoY. Median expectations had been for 0.3% MoM and 8.1% YoY so the hot number hammered markets on the open, especially precious metals.
The markets climbed their way back as of publishing, indicating the investors may be starting to understand the Fed’s predicament even though the probability of a 75bps hike in November is now a near certainty at 99%.
Some people in the mainstream have been talking about gold’s demise as an important financial asset. Meanwhile, central banks continue to buy gold. What are the gold naysayers missing? Peter Schiff appeared on Fox Business with Charles Payne to talk about the price of gold and why some investors are starting to realize they’ll need gold as the Fed loses its inflation fight.
According to the BLS, the economy added 263,000 jobs in September, which was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000. More significantly, the trends reveal a slowing labor market.
Education and Health led the way with strong hiring along with Leisure and Hospitality.
Over the last 18 months, the Treasury has aggressively converted short-term debt to longer-term debt. This can be seen in the chart below with the turquoise bars being negative.
Last week, the Bank of England threw in the towel on its inflation fight and launched a quantitative easing program. Why? Because something broke in the UK financial system. That led to a rally in stocks and precious metals this week as many in the US realized the Fed might be closer to a pivot than previously thought. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about why he thinks something is going to eventually break in the US economy.
