The January Trade Deficit saw a slight increase compared to December, coming in at -$68.3B vs -$67.2B in the prior month. After peaking at -$106B in March of last year, the Trade Deficit has returned to a more stable range between -$60B and -$80B.
Looking at last month’s US Treasury activity, it’s clear that interest expenses are exploding upwards at an unsustainable pace. Annualized interest on the debt increased by $25 billion in a single month.
Note: This article has been edited with additional data reported by the World Gold Council released after publication.
After charting the highest level of net gold purchases on record in 2022, central banks started out 2023 right where they left off.
Central banks globally added another net 77 tons to their gold reserves in January, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.
Despite the hotter-than-expected CPI data for January, most people still seem confident that the Federal Reserve can win the inflation fight, drive CPI back to 2% in relatively short order, and then return to the easy monetary policy we all have come to expect. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey does not share this optimism. In this episode, he outlines three reasons the Fed won’t win the inflation fight.
The seasonally adjusted money supply in January increased by $31 billion. This was the first increase in the money supply in five months.
This month, the conclusion is going at the top because it can be hard to read through and interpret all the data.
In a nutshell, the data is sending mixed signals. Delivery volume is slowly drifting lower, but some of the underlying data is starting to show large deviations from the mean. In particular, silver saw a lot of contracts wait until the last minute to roll, similar to what we saw with gold last month.
Why?
Gold deliveries in February came in quite low for a major month, totaling only 15,055. This is the lowest month going back to February 2020 (pre-Covid). The chart below shows the big spike in deliveries seen after Covid started. While the current month is still above any pre-Covid month, it is small when compared to some of the major delivery months seen recently.
The Federal Reserve came close but still fell short of its $95 billion per month balance sheet reduction target through the last full week in February. This means the Fed has fallen short in 8 of the last 9 months.
And with rising interest rates coupled with even this modest balance sheet reduction, the Fed is also bleeding money.
Why should you own gold in your investment portfolio? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about some reasons to own gold, including its historical wealth-preserving qualities and its role as a safe haven. He also talks about a new buzzword central bankers and politicians are using to make inflation seem less bad.
Any suggestion of returning the monetary system to a gold standard is immediately met with howls of protest. “It’s impossible!” were told.
But Bettina Bien Greaves who was a translator, editor, and bibliographer for economist Ludwig von Mises’ works argues that there is no practical reason we couldn’t return to a gold standard. The objections are almost all ideological. “If this basic obstacle could be overcome, however, a return to gold money would become a realistic possibility,” she wrote.
