The technical analysis last month highlighted how the current price spike looked unsustainable and needed time to consolidate. It also mentioned that we may be at a turning point in precious metals, concluding:
Most attention in the precious metals markets has focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response. The perception that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation has created headwinds for gold and silver. But as Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains, there is a silver lining in all this – the fundamentals for silver. In this episode, Mike highlights silver’s supply and demand dynamics. He also covers some good news for gold and silver coming out of Arkansas.
On the surface, everything still looks fine at the COMEX, but the data reveals more going on.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
There has been a lot of talk lately about de-dollarization. As just one example, the BRICS nations recently announced they are developing a new currency. Peter Schiff recently appeared on Commodity Culture with Jessie Day to talk about the trajectory of the dollar. He said that the death blow for the dollar is coming. And when it does, people will run to gold.
Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders has signed a bill into law making gold and silver legal tender in the state. The new law also effectively repeals the state capital gains tax on gold and silver. Enactment of this legislation will relieve some of the tax burden on investors, and take a step toward treating precious metal bullion as money instead of a commodity.
Gold has alternately rallied and tanked over the last week based primarily on how investors view the inflation fight. When they think the Fed is about to win, they buy gold. When they think the fight may have to continue, they sell.
In a recent podcast, Peter explained that investors are right to buy gold based on inflation. But they’re completely backward in their reasoning.
After ending 2022 on an upward trend, China’s gold market continued to rebound during the first quarter of 2023.
Wholesale gold demand in China during Q1 hit the highest first-quarter level since 2019. Meanwhile, gold imports charted the strongest start to a year since 2015.
With the CPI coming in slightly cooler than expected and producer prices unexpectedly falling, a lot of people think the Fed pivot is now in play and we will soon see an end to monetary tightening. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the possibility of a pivot, market reaction, and most importantly, the possible ramifications.
The Federal Government ran a gargantuan deficit of -$378B in March. This is over $100B larger than the massive February deficit. In the last three years, only the deficit last September was larger because the government recognized the cost of Biden’s student loan forgiveness. September aside, this month was the largest deficit month since March 2021 when Biden signed the last Covid deficit bailout package.
The CPI rose in March by 0.06%, which was less than expected. That said, as the chart below shows, the fall in Energy prices was entirely responsible for containing an otherwise high CPI.
