This week, the IMF undercut the Fed’s “transitory” inflation narrative, warning about the possibility of sustained inflation in the US. But the real question remains unanswered – what will the Fed do about it? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the options on the table. None of them seem particularly good. That raises another question: how long can the politicians and central bankers keep this thing going?
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. It provides historical context and defines many of the terms used below.
While it is exciting to track the countdown to First Notice to determine how many contracts will stand for delivery in a given month, the real movement of metal occurs in the stock report which shows metal entering and leaving the Comex system as well as ownership of physical metal. The charts and tables below analyze this data to track the change in trend that occurred with the Covid pandemic in early 2020 as noted in What is the Comex?.
The US trade balance shows the deficit and surplus of US trade for imports and exports. A deficit occurs when imports are greater than exports. When the trade balance is in deficit, it accounts for one of the two components of the twin deficits. The fiscal deficit accounts for the other component and will be reviewed in a later article.
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months
Will the Federal Reserve tighten monetary policy to fight inflation? Or will it keep its loose monetary policy in place to support the fake recovery? The central bank has a profound influence on the economy, for better or for worse. But should the Federal Reserve even exist? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey argues that it shouldn’t – not if you follow the original meaning of the Constitution. He makes his case with an interesting history lesson on the creation of the First Bank of the United States.
Markets reacted strongly to what many considered “hawkish” messaging coming out of the June Federal Reserve meeting. But is the Fed really taking a “hawkish” position?
Peter Schiff said the Fed was engaging in a “no stick” monetary policy. And in his Friday Gold Wrap podcast, Mike Maharrey argued the Fed was a dove in hawks clothing, arguing we should look at the Fed’s actions, not the messaging.
Inflation is running hot right now. The May CPI data came in hotter than expected, a trend we’ve seen every month this year. But the Federal Reserve and the mainstream financial media continue to insist inflation “transitory.” Peter Schiff recently appeared with Tucker Carlson on Fox News to talk about skyrocketing prices.
The US government has pumped trillions of stimulus dollars into the US economy giving us a massive sugar high. It felt good at the moment, but after the initial rush, you always experience a crash.
It looks as if we’re already coming down off the high. May retail sales disappointed, dropping 1.3% after big stimulus-fueled gains in March and April. Meanwhile, over the last two weeks, weekly unemployment claims have jumped back above 400,000.
Is inflation “transitory,” the result of a quickly recovering post-pandemic economy as Jerome Powell insists? Or is it a long-term phenomenon resulting from loose monetary policy that’s not about to abate anytime soon? Peter Schiff recently participated in the “great inflation debate” on RT’s Cross Talk with Peter Lavelle, along with American Institute for Economic Research economist Pete Earle and Renaissance Capital economist Sofia Donets.
The S&P 500 closed last week at an all-time record high. This is quite a reversal from the previous week. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said there has been a shift in expectations. After the June FOMC meeting, investors were jittery that the Fed was going to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. Now the thinking seems to be that there is no inflation problem. It really is just transitory. Everything is great because – well – the Fed tells us so!
Yesterday, President Joe Biden announced Republicans and Democrats have come up with a $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal. But where is Uncle Sam going to come up with the money? And what does this tell you about the likely trajectory of Federal Reserve monetary policy? Host Mike Maharrey talks about it in this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast. He also discusses the latest talk, talk, talk coming out of the Fed.
