CPI data came in slightly cooler than expected for August, giving new energy to the “transitory” inflation narrative. But can we really trust these numbers? In this episode, Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey takes a deep dive into the CPI and considers this question. He also touches on the big gold sell-off Thursday sparked by surprisingly good retail sales numbers.
For months, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has insisted that inflation is “transitory.” Instead of laying out a plan to taper quantitative easing, Powell used his Jackson Hole speech to double down on that narrative. Looking at the bigger picture, the US government has created a CPI calculation that intentionally understates rising prices.
This raises a question: why are the government and the Fed so desperate to hide price inflation?
For the first time in nine months, the government CPI data came in under expectations. Prices rose by 0.3% last month, just below the 0.4% projection. Year on year, the CPI was up 5.3%. Core inflation, stripping out more volatile food and energy (for those of you who don’t eat or use energy) was up 0.1%. Core inflation is up 4% on the year.
In his podcast, Peter Schiff took a deeper dive into the numbers and explained why this doesn’t prove inflation is “transitory.” He also drilled down to the root cause of rising prices – too much money chasing not enough stuff. Given the current monetary policy, that doesn’t appear set to change anytime soon.
The US government ran a $170.64 billion budget deficit in August, pushing the total fiscal 2021 budget shortfall to $2.71 trillion with one month to go, according to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement.
The mainstream media spun this as good news, noting that the August deficit was 15% lower than the $200 billion spending gap a year ago. This was primarily a function of higher revenues in August 2021 compared to last year. But digging deeper into the numbers reveals the US government hasn’t exactly slowed down its out-of-control spending spree, with spending last month also up compared to last year.
Producer prices came in hot again in August, charting the biggest annual gain in nearly 11 years. This indicates “transitory” inflation isn’t going away any time soon.
The PPI for August rose 0.7% month-on-month. Economists were forecasting a 0.6% rise. This follows on the heels of two straight months with producer prices increasing 1.0%.
A lot of investors are disappointed in gold. After all, many buy gold because of inflation. Even with rapidly rising prices, the yellow metal hasn’t delivered as you might expect.
During his virtual speech for the Money Show, Peter Schiff explains exactly what is going on. He said in the end, gold will be vindicated because inflation will win in a knockout.
The government is always promising to fix things. It has policies to fix the economy, fix foreign countries, and even fix the pandemic. But as Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey explains in this episode, instead of fixing things, the government wrecks pretty much everything it touches.
Peter Schiff spent an hour and a half answering questions during a live chat on Instagram.
The August jobs numbers came in much lower than expected, a kick in the teeth for those touting the “improving economy” narrative. Meanwhile, personal incomes continue to grow but rising prices are eating up that growth and then some.
The economic data suggest the Fed’s plan is failing and stagflation looms on the horizon.
During his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell rewrote the history of inflation. In this clip from his podcast, Peter Schiff unravels the yarn that Powell spun.
In a nutshell, Powell claimed prior Fed policymakers mistakenly moved too fast to address inflation that turned out to be transitory, and he said he didn’t want to make the same mistake.