Inflation is low – so we’re told. But this simply isn’t true.
Now, it is true that the consumer price index (CPI) has remained relatively low. But rising prices aren’t in-and-of themselves inflation. In fact, we can have inflation without a corresponding rise in CPI – at least in the short-term. That’s exactly what we’ve had over the last decade. We’ve had rampant inflation, but it hasn’t manifested in broad-based rising prices – yet.
Everything is great!
We’ve heard this mantra over and over again from government officials, TV talking heads and Federal Reserve bankers. But as we’ve been saying, all the optimism in the world can’t trump economic reality. And there are a lot of signs in the global economy indicating everything is not, in fact, great.
Dan Kurz at DK Analytics aggregates large amounts of economic data and forms it into a big picture. In his most recent post, Dan compiled a long list of economic and financial risks lurking out there in the global economy.
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
There are some troubling signs for the economy in the bond market. Yield curves are going flat.
On Wednesday, the yield curve from 5 to 30 year bonds flattened to as little as 29 basis points. That represents the narrowest spread since 2007. The yield curve between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries also narrowed, touching 41 basis points, also the smallest gap since before the financial crisis. Investors extending to 10 years from 7 pick up just 4.3 basis points, less than a quarter of what they got a year ago, according to Bloomberg.
So, what does this mean?
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said we are basically enjoying the calm before the storm right now.
With the US missile strike in Syria, rumblings of a trade war and a generally weak dollar, gold briefly flirted with $1,365 last week. But the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate hikes continues to create strong headwinds against the yellow metal. Last week, the Fed released its March FOMC minutes and most analysts interpreted them as “hawkish.” In fact, many people now think the Fed will nudge rates up again in June, leaving six months to get in the much-anticipated third hike of the year and possibly even get in a fourth.
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
Over the last several weeks, we’ve spotlighted a lot of data indicating the economy isn’t nearly as strong as the mainstream pundits keep telling us. We’ve focused on the collapsing retail sector. We’ve looked at household debt and US consumer stress. We’ve talked a lot about the US federal debt and its potential impact on the economy.
There’s another factor that indicates there may be some cracks in the global economy – the silver-gold ratio.
Stocks rebounded Monday after their precipitous fall late last week. The Dow Jones rose 669 points. Then on Tuesday, it tanked again, falling over 300 points.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said the increase in stock market volatility is another sign things are different. He reiterated what he said last Friday. He thinks we are in a bear market. All of the flashing warning signs are there. It’s just that nobody can seem to see them.
Spending America into oblivion has become business as usual on Capitol Hill.
On Friday, Pres. Donald Trump signed a $1.3 trillion dollar spending bill. The legislation funds the federal government through the remainder of the 2018 budget year, which ends Sept. 30.
The bill directs $700 billion to the military and $591 billion to various domestic agencies. According to the Washington Post, military spending will increase $66 billion over the 2017 level, and the nondefense spending comes in at $52 billion more than last year.
