Through the last several presidential administrations, the US has maintained a “strong dollar” policy. As Peter Schiff pointed out in his most recent podcast, it wasn’t so much that you could pinpoint the specific tenets of the policy. It was more about the rhetoric that came out of Washington D.C. Everybody talked about the strong dollar being in the national interest.
Having the belief that there was some kind of hidden strong dollar policy helped to create confidence in the dollar. Even periods where the dollar was declining, perhaps it would have declined even more had it not been for the belief that there was some kind of strong dollar policy.”
But times have changed. As Peter put it, “It should be pretty obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy.”
As Jim Rickards put it in a recent column, there’s a lot of “happy talk” coming out of Washington D.C.
To hear Donald Trump tell it, we might be in the midst of the greatest US economy in history. When the Q2 GDP number came in at 4.1%, the president called it “an economic turnaround of historic proportions.” Of course, Trump isn’t alone in his optimistic hyperbole. Politicians and pundits all across the mainstream keep telling us everything is great. They see growth from horizon to horizon. Employment is booming. Americans are spending.
The problem with all the happy talk is that it doesn’t have much to do with reality. The Trump economy looks pretty much like the Obama economy.
Pretty much everybody in the mainstream is giddy about the US economy. As Charles Payne on Fox Business put it, “The Trump economy continues to fire on all cylinders.”
Payne rattled off a long list of positive indicators, from increasing wages, increasing consumer confidence, and strong spending and income numbers. Payne said this is all “building on what’s already been an amazing economy.”
And then Peter Schiff came on and dumped cold water on the party.
The dollar declined sharply, pushing gold up late last week as Pres. Trump criticized the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Trump took aim at the Fed during an interview on CNBC, saying he’s “not thrilled” with the central bank’s push to raise rates.
Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again. I don’t really — I am not happy about it. But at the same time, I’m letting them do what they feel is best.”
Trump also blasted the European Central Bank and the Bank of China, accusing them of currency manipulation. Trump says the two banks are intentionally weakening their currency to disadvantage the US.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said he thinks the president is saying all of this in order to have a place to put the blame when the economy tanks.
Dan Kurz runs the DK Analytics website where he posts detailed breakdowns of complex economic issues. We recently interviewed Dan as part of our It’s Your Dime Series. In his most recent post, Dan used his analytical skills to break down the first 18 months of the Trump administration.
Dan finds a little good, a little bad and even some ugly in the first year-and-a-half of Trump’s term. Dan likes the fact that the president has called out fake news, the fact that he seems to be pushing back against the establishment/deep state and his Supreme Court picks. On the other hand, Kurz believes the growing trade war could be bad news for the US economy and sees some troubling Hooverism developing.
Is it just me, or has modern American politics devolved into little more than petulant playground namecalling devoid of substance?
I stumbled across this latest outrage as I was perusing the depths of the internet the other day – presidential “challenge coins.” Apparently, according to the mainstream pundits, President Donald Trump can’t even get a fun little presidential tradition right.
The New York Times did an entire feature story on how Trump has ruined presidential challenge coins. I’ll bet most of you haven’t even heard of challenge coins. But they’re a thing. And according to our intrepid NYT columnist, Trump’s execution of this august tradition is a complete outrage!
Just like that, it appears the trade war is over. Although, as Peter Schiff pointed out in his latest podcast, it wasn’t really much of a war.
I don’t think I should call it a ceasefire because nobody actually fired a shot, and it’s been more of a war of words than a real conventional battle. I mean, basically a lot of saber-rattling, not a lot of fencing. But I think what happened today is we called a truce. Both sides sheathed their sabers and agreed that there’s not going to be a war.”
President Trump’s new economic adviser did an interview on CNBC’s Closing Bell Wednesday and offered a little investment advice.
I would buy King Dollar and I would sell gold.”
So, should you follow Larry Kudlow’s guidance?
Of course, that’s up to you. But Kudlow doesn’t have the best track record when it comes to predicting the future. On the cusp of the 2008 financial crisis, he was among the mainstream pundits saying the whole subprime mortgage thing was “no big deal.”