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POSTED ON August 10, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

As expected, the Consumer Price index cooled a bit thanks to falling gasoline prices. The question is will this give the Federal Reserve the excuse it needs bow out of the inflation fight?

The Consumer Price Index for July was up 8.5% year-on-year. That was down from June’s 9.1% print and slightly below the 8.7% expectation. Of course, an 8.5% increase in prices over the course of a year is still extremely hot.

POSTED ON July 15, 2022  - POSTED IN Friday Gold Wrap

It happened again. The CPI data for June came in hotter than expected. Prices rose at the fastest pace in this inflationary cycle. That pushes the Fed ever closer to having to make a very difficult choice. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the most recent CPI data and talks about the “Sophie’s choice” facing the Federal Reserve.

POSTED ON July 14, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the central bank have continued to talk tough about fighting inflation. But I’m pretty certain that in private, they were desperately hoping to see some cooling in the inflation data so they could start backing out of the ring. With a recession pretty clearly on the horizon (if not already here), you can bet that the central bankers don’t want to keep tightening monetary policy.

They didn’t get their wish.

POSTED ON June 10, 2022  - POSTED IN Friday Gold Wrap

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May came out this morning. The projection was for another hot headline number but some relief in core CPI. This would seem to indicate we’ve passed peak inflation. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharey explains why “good news” in the CPI data would be bad news for inflation. Then he reacts to the data in real-time. (Hint — it wasn’t good news.)

POSTED ON May 13, 2022  - POSTED IN Friday Gold Wrap

When we got the March CPI data last month, the mainstream crooned that it looked like we were at peak inflation. This was wishful thinking. The April CPI data that came out this week, along with the producer price numbers, indicate that we’re still climbing that inflation mountain. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the data and discusses how it could impact the trajectory of Fed monetary policy and the economy.

POSTED ON May 12, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 8.5% annually, the highest since December 1981. But the mainstream narrative was that inflation had probably peaked because core inflation, stripping out more volatile food and energy, “only” rose by 0.3%.  Mainstream pundits reasoned that the oil shock in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine primarily drove the huge 1.2% month-on-month CPI gain. And since core CPI appeared to be slowing, inflation was cooling.

The April CPI data undercuts this narrative.

POSTED ON April 21, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Earlier this week, the yield on the 30-year Treasury rose above 3% for the first time since April 2019 as the carnage in the bond market continues.

Rising yields have put pressure on gold. The yellow metal flirted with $2,000 an ounce but has since fallen below the $1,950 resistance. Once again, investors are fixated on rising interest rates, but missing the bigger picture — real rates remain deeply negative.

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