Data coming from the COMEX could indicate growing pressure for a breakout in gold and silver.
COMEX data has shown large deviations for several months. Most of this occurred before Russia invaded Ukraine and these deviations have grown larger since. The invasion seems to have accelerated trends that were already in place.
Banks are in the process of restocking gold at a pace not seen in years.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I highlighted Comex data points that could signal a big move ahead in gold. The invasion may have been the spark to light the fire, but the data showed the groundwork was being laid back in January.
Silver has now sent up its own flare that may be tied to the largest data adjustment ever seen at the CME for silver.
There have been some major adjustments to headline data numbers so far in February from the BLS, the Fed, and now the Comex.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
As mentioned yesterday, daily updates into the March close are warranted given the extreme situation in the market. Today is First Position, which means the data tonight will give the first indication of March deliveries. Let’s get into it…
Usually, I only do one Comex Countdown into the close, but… you know… a war just started. Throw on top the fact that the Comex has been flashing warning signs lately, and I think a daily update is warranted for the next three days.
It’s very possible delivery volume is very robust which could put pressure on the physical market. I will keep the commentary light and the charts simple…
The last article highlighted the strange things going on in the gold market. Specifically:
- Cash settlement instead of delivery for February
- Increased open interest in March
- Slightly higher spread cost in April.
Recent weeks have seen several flashing yellow signs in the gold market.
Gold continues to flow out of COMEX vaults at a rapid pace. Inventory fell 3% in the last month alone.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail.
As reported last week, Comex January turned out to be extremely strong in both gold and silver for a minor month. Most of that strength materialized after First Position. February was looking modest in gold and weak in silver, but the gold market is now showing outlier trends.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
An article earlier this month reviewed the massive volume of physical metal leaving the bank House accounts over the last two years. December 2021 finished the year off with a massive drawdown in House account inventories. While the drawdown continues across most accounts, Bank of America has tried to recoup some of the physical metal that left its holdings in December. As the data below shows, this has led to an extremely strong January to kick-off 2022.
