Gold deliveries in January have reached 6,327 contracts with only 178 remaining in open interest. While this fell shy of the last five minor months, there are a few signs that are noteworthy.
First, the delivery volume was greater than last January. This is important because January is typically a slow month after the major December contract.
The flow of gold and silver out of Comex vaults has slowed in recent weeks, but there is no question that metal continues to move out.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
This analysis typically starts with gold, but the activity in platinum is a major event that should not be overlooked.
See the article What is the Comex? for a bit of backstory.
December gold is having the weakest major delivery month since February. This is surprising given the recent strength in gold and considering that last December saw quite a large number of contracts deliver (36k). I commented on this a few weeks ago, suggesting that the lower volume was a result of thinner supplies. I think the silver shortage is well underway and it is just starting in gold. This is why gold is showing signs that silver showed 6-12 months ago.
The drainage of silver from Comex vaults since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
While the data this month looks weak, I think there is more to the story. My hypothesis is speculative in nature, so I will save it for the end after going through the data.
Slowly but surely, physical supplies of gold and silver are being drained from the Comex. This has put pressure on the system. We are now seeing that pressure manifest itself in the data.
Gold and silver continue to flow out of the COMEX vaults.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Managed money has controlled the gold and silver market over the last several months. But there are other dynamics going on unnoticed under the surface.
Please note: the CoTs report was published 10/28/2022 for the period ending 10/25/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Very slowly at first, and then very quickly?”
The data shows that the Comex is in the middle of experiencing a run on its vaults that is really taking its toll and continuing to accelerate. If you read no further in this analysis, first just take a look at Figure 8 and Figure 18 – those two charts will tell you everything you need to know about the impact of the vault exodus.