Former Reagan administration OMB Director David Stockman has called this the “mother of all bond bubbles.” Has that bubble popped? That remains to be seen, but bonds got hammered last week.
Bonds have pretty much moved in tandem with gold over the last several weeks as perceived safe-haven trades. Peter Schiff talked about it in his latest podcast, saying he thinks the bond market is eventually going to decouple from gold.
Corporations are piling on the debt.
Last week, companies borrowed $74 billion in the US investment-grade bond market. It was the largest corporate debt increase for any comparable period since they started tracking such things in 1972.
Here we go again!
Gold and silver both took a tumble yesterday because US and Chinese officials are reportedly going to have a meeting. Hope that this might mean a thaw in the trade war boosted risk sentiment and drove profit-taking in the precious metals markets.
We’ve seen this song and dance before. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about it. He also points out some very interesting Federal Reserve news that nobody in the mainstream has even mentioned.
Has QE4 already started?
For the first time since October 2014, the Federal Reserve has bought a significant number of US Treasurys. Over the past two weeks, the Fed purchased $14 billion in US bonds.
The bond market flashed a major recession warning sign as the yield curve inverted this week. Meanwhile, Trump whipsawed markets when he appeared to blink in the never-ending trade war with China. That made for an interesting week for gold. In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the events of the last few days and their impact on precious metals. He also remembers an important day in history that went mostly unnoticed in the mainstream.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below the yield on the 2-year for the first time in 12 years, stoking recession fears and tanking stock markets.
Yield curve inversions have preceded all nine recessions since 1955. This was the first time the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below the 2-year yield since June 2007 – the cusp of the Great Recession.
The price of gold surged this week, breaking all-time records in a number of currencies. It also did pretty well in dollar terms, hitting six-year highs and pushing above the key $1,500 level. Meanwhile, silver had its best single day in over three years. What drove this week’s precious metals rally? And can we expect it to continue? Host Mike Maharrey talks about it in this week’s Friday Gold Wrap.
In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap, Mike Maharrey covers some more bad signs in the economy, including rising oil prices, an unexpected drop in retail sales and a surge in negative-yielding government bonds. At best, it looks like the economy is slowing down. Or it could be the prelude to the next crisis. This raises an important question: who’s going to save us? Mike suggests we probably shouldn’t be counting on the politicians or the central bankers.
Last week we reported that the yield curve on US Treasurys had inverted after the yield on the 10-year fell below the yield on 3-year bonds for the first time since 2007 – the cusp of the Great Recession. This has historically been an early-warning sign signaling a recession.
Now we have some more bad news for bond markets – this time on a global scale. The amount of government debt with negative yields has vaulted back above the $10 trillion mark and now makes up a full one-fifth of the global bond market.
As we pointed out in an article last week, the US federal government has added $1.5 trillion to the national debt over the last 12 months. As a result, the US Treasury Department is flooding the market with bonds. Meanwhile, the biggest buyers of US debt – China, Japan and the Federal Reserve – are shrinking their Treasury holdings. For the past several months, we’ve been saying this is a big problem for the US government that most people are overlooking. And we aren’t the only ones sounding warning bells.
Last week, the chair of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) sent a letter to Steven Mnuchin containing what the Financial Times called “a bombshell.”
