Peter Schiff: World’s Central Banks are Starting Inflation Again

On Friday’s episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter dives into a week of new inflation data. He calls out the shaky foundations of the so-called “strong” economy, criticizes foreign central bank policy, and explains how inflation masks the benefits of economic growth.

To start, Peter reports alarming deficit numbers for the 2025 fiscal year:

During the first two fiscal months of 2025, because we’re already in that fiscal year, the budget deficit in those two months alone was six hundred and twenty four billion dollars. That’s a 65% increase over the same two months a year ago. In fact, the first time that the United States government ran a six hundred and twenty four billion dollar deficit for an entire year, not just for two months, but for an entire year, was 2009, right after the 2008 financial crisis.

These figures clash with the official narrative that the economy is doing well. If that’s really the case, why do the American people disagree?

If consumers were in the greatest shape ever, according to this Wall Street analyst, they would have voted for Kamala. They wouldn’t have tried to get rid of her because things are supposedly so awful, and they’re hoping that Trump would change things. … It’s like you’re lying in a hospital bed, plugged into all kinds of artificial life support, tubes in your mouth, tubes in your nose, blood going intravenously into your body, and you ask the doctor, ‘What’s going on?’ ‘You’re in great shape, absolutely perfectly healthy, except if we unplug anything you’re going to drop dead.’

A hotter-than-expected inflation report released on Thursday practically demands rate hikes from the Fed, but the market still predicts the Fed will cut rates at its December meeting:

All these numbers confirm is that inflation is bottoming out and is headed much higher, and it never got anywhere near 2%. Especially if you look at the PPI (Producer Price Index), which is a leading indicator for the CPI, because generally businesses have their prices go up first and then they pass it on to the consumer second. … The expectation for the increase in November producer prices was 0.3%, and we got 0.4%. That was double the increase from the prior month of 0.2%, so we’re heading in the wrong direction fast.

Current predictions place the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates again at over 95%. This is sadly aligned with the inflationary monetary policy being implemented in Europe and the rest of the world:

Yet the Fed is going to cut rates by another 25 basis points. By the way, the ECB (European Central Bank) cut rates 25 basis points this week, and the Swiss National Bank went for a super-sized 50 basis point cut… Inflation is going to rear its head in a big way all over the world: the Eurozone, Japan, all these countries that are cutting rates should not be cutting rates. Inflation is going to roar back stronger than ever, worse than what we had in 2001, 2002. 

Central banks hoodwink their citizens with inflation, obscuring economic progress for the sake of their own policy goals:

Let’s assume that all else being equal the government doesn’t create any inflation and productivity is so good that prices would have fallen by 5. Well, that’s great. That’s a huge economic benefit for the economy. …  Now the government creates inflation and instead of prices going down by 5 percent they go up by 2 percent. Now you’re going to say oh well, there’s no inflation now because now we’re at the fed’s 2 target. No! Prices are 7% higher than they otherwise would have been. We didn’t get all that inflation for free. The government robbed us of that increase in our standard of living. They took away the benefit of those price cuts. 

For more analysis of last week’s economic numbers, check out Joel’s analysis on the SchiffGold Gold Wrap Podcast.