As we reported last week, investors are in an era of “irrational exuberance.”
The US stock market is at all-time highs. Meanwhile, market volatility is at lows not seen since the 1990s. In an odd juxtaposition of seemingly contradictory points of view, investors realize the market is overvalued, but at the same time, they believe it will continue to go up. According to a Bank of Ameria survey, 56% of money managers project a “Goldilocks” economic backdrop of steady expansion with tempered inflation.
In an article published at the Mises Wire, economist Thorsten Polleit adds some further analysis and asks a critical question.
Credit spreads have been shrinking, and prices for credit default swaps have fallen to pre-crisis levels. In fact, investors are no longer haunted by concerns about the stability of the financial system, potential credit defaults, and unfavorable surprises in the economy or financial assets markets.
“How come?”
Last week, the House passed its version of “tax reform,” along party lines. The final vote came in at 227-205, with the entire Democratic caucus opposing the bill. Thirteen Republicans joined the Democrats in voting no.
The debate now shifts to the Senate where things will likely become more contentious. Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has already announced he opposes the current Senate plan. And the Senate bill differs from the House version – significantly putting off corporate tax cuts for a year. If the Senate can get something passed, the two chambers will have to figure out a compromise plan.
Peter Schiff has been saying the Republicans aren’t even really attempting to reform the tax system. He called the GOP plans “tax cuts masquerading as reform.” Peter is not alone in this thinking.
There’s a significant platinum shortage on the horizon according to an industry report.
According to a quarterly report released by the World Platinum Investment Council, a resurgence in demand for platinum jewelry, increasing industrial demand, along with falling production, will lead to a shortfall of 275,000 ounces in 2018.
According to data compiled by the Chicago Fed, financial conditions have reached the loosest level in the US since January 1994. This despite Federal Reserve tightening over the last year.
On Nov. 10, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions index hit -0.93. As Peter Schiff pointed out in his most recent podcast, that was early on in the dot-com bubble. The Fed has been raising interest rates and talking about shrinking its balance sheet. Why is it that financial conditions are looser now then when rates were still at zero?
Peter said it’s because the Federal Reserve is way behind the curve.
Over the last year, we’ve talked a lot about geopolitical risk. Could turmoil around the world now be the new normal?
Some analysts think so.
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
At SchiffGold, we pride ourselves on being a full-service precious metals dealer, and my Fun on Friday column is no exception. I want to make sure I’m providing you all the information you need. So, do you remember the previous Fun on Friday post when I told you how you can turn your next dinner party into a roaring success by making your guests poop gold?
Well, I’ve found just the thing you need to round out the experience.
If your guests are going to poop gold, they should do it on a $100,000 gold-plated toilet made out of Louis Vuitton bags.
Conventional wisdom holds that an interest rate hike in December will be bad for gold.
But will it?
There is actually evidence the opposite could be true.
The Texas Bullion Depository took a step closer becoming operational earlier this month when officials announced the location of the new facility. The creation of a state bullion depository in Texas represents a power shift away from the federal government to the state, and it provides a blueprint that could ultimately end the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money.
Analysts at Thomson Reuters expect the price of gold to push back over $1,300 and then continue to rise above $1,400 through next year, primarily driven by overvalued stock markets, according to the GFMS Gold Survey 2017 Q3 Update and Outlook.
