In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap, Mike Maharrey covers some more bad signs in the economy, including rising oil prices, an unexpected drop in retail sales and a surge in negative-yielding government bonds. At best, it looks like the economy is slowing down. Or it could be the prelude to the next crisis. This raises an important question: who’s going to save us? Mike suggests we probably shouldn’t be counting on the politicians or the central bankers.
In the March 8 episode of the SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast, Mike Maharrey emphasized the importance of understanding sound economic theory. And as economist Frank Shostak explained, facts and figures aren’t enough to digest what’s going on in the economy.
In order to really make sense of the data one must have a theory, which stands on its own feet, and did not originate from the data. By means of a theory, one could scrutinize the data and could then try to make sense out of it.”
In a recent article published on the Mises Wire, economist Dr. Thorsten Polleit builds on this body of knowledge, explaining how central bank manipulations of interest rates not only distort the economy, the actually mess with our minds.
Ever since the beginning of the “Powell Pause,” Peter Schiff has been saying it won’t be enough.
If the Fed doesn’t want to upset the markets, soon it will be forced to go back to QE and zero percent interest rates.”
Peter isn’t alone in saying this. After the most recent FOMC meeting, Ryan McMaken at the Mises Institute echoed Peter’s message.
Put simply: the days of quantitative easing are back, and we’re not even in a recession yet.”
We’ve been following a number of central banks that have been buying gold recently, specifically the Russians and Chinese. But these two central banks aren’t alone. In fact, central bank gold-buying has surged over the last couple of years. What’s behind this trend?
As you probably know, Warren Buffett has never been a fan of gold and has publicly disparaged the yellow metal on more than one occasion. About a year ago, he compared investing in gold and stocks, arguing that over the long term gold is an “unproductive asset” that “doesn’t produce anything.” So, why have it, unless you just want something to “fondle.” At the time, we argued that Buffet’s comments fall apart when you realize that gold is money. After all, I doubt you would ever hear him say “never hold cash because it’s an unproductive asset.”
Well, Buffet is at it again.
The conventional wisdom is that demand for gold and silver has been somewhat tepid over the last couple of years. In fact, global gold demand grew by about 4% in 2018 and was in line with the five-year average. Much of that growth was due to a surged in demand through the fourth quarter as stock markets tanked, and concerns about debt and the global economy grew.
We tend to be pretty short-sighted when we look at market trends. Most investors focus on the day-to-day gyrations. As a result, we often completely miss significant long-term trends. For instance, investment demand for gold and silver has increased dramatically in the decade since the financial crisis.
Raising the minimum wage might be good politics, but it’s bad economics – despite what some economists say.
Last week, the Maryland legislature overrode the governor’s veto and adopted a $15 per hour minimum wage. It was a major victory for the “Fight for $15” crowd, but it almost certainly won’t be for low-skilled workers — at least not the ones who whose maximum wage will be $0 per hour because they cannot find jobs.
The Dow Jones closed out Q1 2019 with its best quarterly gain since 1998, rising 10.3% through the first three months of the year. And the Dow Jones wasn’t alone in its bang-up first quarter. The S&P 500 rose 12.3%. The Russell 2000 was up 13.8%. And the Nasdaq led the entire pack with a 15.6% gain.
As Peter Schiff said in his latest podcast, the entire rally was a gift from the Federal Reserve.
Last week we reported that the yield curve on US Treasurys had inverted after the yield on the 10-year fell below the yield on 3-year bonds for the first time since 2007 – the cusp of the Great Recession. This has historically been an early-warning sign signaling a recession.
Now we have some more bad news for bond markets – this time on a global scale. The amount of government debt with negative yields has vaulted back above the $10 trillion mark and now makes up a full one-fifth of the global bond market.
I used to hate it when my parents would tell me how much easier I had it than they did. But as I rip through middle age and rapidly approach “old,” I am becoming much more sympathetic to my parents’ point of view. Not that my parents really had it harder than me… But kids these days? Yeah, they have it way easier than I ever did.
I mean, yeah, my dad may have had to walk two miles to school in the snow — uphill both ways — while I got to ride with mom. But hell, kids these days don’t even have to get up to change the channel on the TV.
