It’s a Scary World Out There; Gold Is the Safe Haven
Gold finally broke through and held above the $1,300 resistance level this week.
There are a number of factors in place that could help sustain a gold bull run, but the biggest driver right now is fear.
And the fear isn’t unjustified. It’s a scary world out there.
As an article in the Economic Times put it, “the surge in the price of gold appears to be more than a ‘technical’ move. Instead, it smacks of fear in the markets.”
A weak dollar has certainly been a factor in the rising price of gold. But as the ET report points out, gold has resisted rallying even though the greenback has been weakening all year. And as Peter Schiff noted in his most recent Gold Videocast, gold is not just rising in dollar terms.
Gold now is not only rising in terms of dollars, but it’s finally rising in terms of everything. Gold is now going up in yen terms. It’s going up in Swiss frank terms, even though those currencies are rising as well. This is a key factor. And I think now that we have cleared out that resistance – there are a lot of people who thought there was no upside in gold. Well, they’re about to find out just how much upside there was.”
The Economic Times did a quick summary of all the things going on around the globe that contribute to the atmosphere of fear. When you see it broken down in simple terms, it becomes pretty clear why people are buying gold as a safe-haven.
It’s probably no coincidence that the latest move higher coincides with reports of discord among the highest-level staffers in the Trump administration over the president’s response to violence in Charlottesville, Virginia. Or it could be powered by reports that North Korea is making progress on its nuclear missile program. Or the mounting concern that Washington lawmakers will trigger a technical default on US debt by not raising the debt ceiling on time and shutting down the government. Or that the hurdles to tax reform anytime soon look increasingly in surmountable. Or that the special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into the Trump campaign’s possible ties to Russia is gathering steam. Or that the stock market is priced for perfection.”
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When you look at all of the fear-generating geopolitical issues in the world today, very few of them seem likely to resolve anytime soon. North Korea won’t just go away. Washington D.C. won’t suddenly shed its dysfunction. Pres. Trump won’t shut down his Twitter account. And the stock market won’t cease to be a giant bubble (until it bursts).
That’s why the mainstream is suddenly bullish on gold. According to the ET, latest weekly positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows money managers are bullish on gold at levels not seen in 11 months, while bearish positions are the smallest in almost five years.
As Peter pointed out in his gold VideoCast, now is the time to buy gold.
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bottom, I think we’ve already left the bottom. I think we’re headed higher. This is not the time to try to look for a bargain. I think $1,300, or $1,310 – wherever it is when you see this video – is going to be a great price relative to where we’re headed. So this is the time, I think, to be buying more gold … If you already have a position, now’s the time to top it up. And if you don’t have a position at all, if you’ve been waiting for lower prices, stop waiting and start buying.”
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