Contact us
CALL US NOW 1-888-GOLD-160
(1-888-465-3160)

Interest Payments on Federal Debt on Pace to Eclipse Social Security Outlays

  by    0   0

At the current trajectory, the cost of paying the annual interest on the US debt will equal the annual cost of Social Security within 30 years, according to a recent report released by the Congressional Budget Office.

By 2048, as interest rates rise from their currently low levels and as debt accumulates, the federal government’s net interest costs are projected to more than double as a percentage of GDP and to reach record levels.  Those costs would equal spending for Social Security, currently the largest federal program, by 2048.”

According to the CBO, federal debt will double in the next 30 years to a record 148% of GDP. And the agency currently uses a low estimate for its debt-to-GDP ratio. It calculates the US debt is currently about 78% of GDP. Many mainstream economists say that number ranges closer to 105% GDP.

We have previously warned that the rising debt coupled with a higher interest rate environment could crush the federal budget under interest payments. Last fall, Pres. Trump signed a budget bill adding about $318 billion to the federal debt. That increase alone will require an extra $7 billion interest payment annually. Analysts have calculated that if the interest rate on Treasury debt stood at 6.2% – their level in 2000 – the annual interest payment on the current debt would nearly triple to $1.3 trillion annually.

Now, the government itself admits it’s on an unsustainable trajectory. And the CBO generally uses relatively conservative assumptions to generate its forecasts. The reality could turn out much worse.

So what, you might ask?

In the first place, growing debt coupled with soaring interest payments creates a vicious upwardly spiraling cycle. As debt grows, it costs more money to service. That requires more borrowing, adding to the pile of debt.

In the second place, debt stifles economic growth. Multiple studies have shown GDP growth decreases by an average of about 30% when government debt exceeds 90% of an economy.

Peter Schiff has said the massive debt could also spur on the dollar collapse.

But Congress seems unwilling or incapable of doing anything about the debt. D.C. has a spending habit it just can’t break. The GOP-controlled Congress recently had an opportunity to slash a modest $15 billion in federal spending authority.

It didn’t.

To put that in perspective, that’s just 0.08 percent of the federal budget.

As Eric Boehm explained in an article published at Reason.com, the “rescission” package would have only cut just $1.1 billion in actual federal spending over 10 years. The rest of the “cuts” came through sweeping up unused budgetary authority from various departments and agencies in the current budget.

If Congress can’t even cut a small fraction out of the budget when the party that is supposedly “fiscal responsibility” is in power, when exactly will it address the debt problem?

It probably won’t.

Get Peter Schiff’s latest gold market analysis – click here for a free subscription to his exclusive monthly Gold Videocast.
Interested in learning how to buy gold and buy silver?
Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today!


Related Posts

Peter Schiff: The Economy Needs a Painful Restructuring Thanks to the Fed

Stock markets have been extremely volatile this week, with massive swings in both directions. The markets rallied on Wednesday, primarily due to optimism about progress in the trade war. On the week, the Dow is up around 100 points, but it also put in new lows. In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said he […]

READ MORE →

Janet “There Won’t Be Another Financial Crisis in Our Lifetime” Yellen Worried About Another Crisis

Remember back when Janet Yellen was heading up the Federal Reserve and she claimed there won’t be another financial crisis “in our lifetime?” You don’t have to think back too far. It was just about 18 months ago. Tuesday, June 27, 2017, to be precise. But now that Yellen has vacated the Eccles building and taken […]

READ MORE →

Nearly Half of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Market

US stock markets took another nosedive last week. Analysts blame the selloff on fears that the arrest of a Chinese businesswoman could derail apparent progress in resolving the trade war between the US and China. But during an interview on RT America, Peter Schiff said that while the arrest of Meng Wanzhou might have sparked […]

READ MORE →

Americans Pile on More Debt; Outstanding Consumer Credit Approaching $4 Trillion

Americans continue to bury themselves in debt. US consumer credit rose by the largest amount in 11 months in October, as Americans piled on another $25.4 billion in debt, according to the latest consumer credit report by the Federal Reserve. Total consumer indebtedness is rapidly approaching $4 trillion, with Americans currently $3.96 trillion in the […]

READ MORE →

What Do These Jobs Numbers Really Tell Us Anyway?

Circling jobs in newspaper classifiedsNovember’s jobs numbers came out Friday weaker than expected. Trump’s twitter feed was strangely silent on the jobs report. Generally, he likes to tout unemployment as an accomplishment, even though he poo-pooed the same numbers when he was campaigning against Obama. As Peter Schiff pointed out in his most recent podcast, the official numbers significantly understate […]

READ MORE →

Comments are closed.

Call Now