Mike Maloney: Data Screams “Recession Is Here!” (Video)
Peter Schiff has been saying for months that the US is probably already in a recession. In fact, during his April 4 podcast, Peter made the case that the “very massive recession,” Donald Trump predicted has already begun (Scroll down to listen.):
Everybody is saying he is nuts because the economy is great. Look at the numbers. The numbers tell a different story. And I believe that Trump is wrong. I don’t think we’re headed for a massive recession. I think we’re already in a massive recession.”
Mike Maloney agrees with Peter, and he recently released a video that highlights four sets of data showing the “robust” economic recovery was all smoke and mirrors created by the Federal Reserve, and the US economy is likely already in recession:
I have a feeling that when the Federal Reserve, and the people who put all this data together, when they finally declare a recession, we’re going to find out that we’re already in a recession – right now.”
Maloney starts out by unmasking the phony recovery:
It hasn’t been a very healthy economic recovery at all, mostly because it hasn’t been a real economic recovery. It was a smoke and mirrors thing done by Ben Bernanke where he made a gift to the banks of a whole bunch of base currency that sits on their balance sheets and pumps up the stock markets, but it doesn’t flow down to Main Street.”
Maloney then makes his case by analyzing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ economic research division. This is data the mainstream has completely ignored.
The first graph shows the Industrial Production Index. It peaked in 2007, right before the crash. After the downturn, it barely recovered to its previous level. More striking, it has been falling since November 2014. That was when Fed Chair Janet Yellen began turning off quantitative easing.
The Second chart Maloney looks at is manufacturing sales. It essentially mirrors industrial production, and has been falling since 2014.
Maloney then turns to Rail Freight Carloads. This measures the amount of freight moving across the country. It was generally steady at 1.4 ton-miles until the crisis of 2008. After the crash, it never returned to previous levels. And like industrial production and manufacturing sales, it has been falling since late 2014:
A real measurement of economic activity in any country is how much freight is being sent back and forth across the country. That’s the stuff that you’re going to be selling…Since December 2014 it has fallen off a cliff, and it’s now down to levels that it was at at the very bottom of the global economic crisis. And so that, to me, says that we’re in recession.”
Finally, Maloney examines delinquencies on all commercial and industrial loans and leases at all commercial banks. The numbers are rising, also flashing recession:
What we see here is a cycle based around the recessions, and we’re headed up once again.”
The data appears to indicate Peter and Maloney are both right. We may well already be in the throes of a recession.
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