Contact us
CALL US NOW 1-888-GOLD-160
(1-888-465-3160)

A Great Big Warning Sign

  by    0   0

Jerome Powell came out pretty hawkish in his public debut yesterday. The new Federal Reserve chairman said he sees little risk of recession and reaffirmed plans to continue tightening the money supply through interest rate increases and quantitative tightening.

My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December. I don’t see [the recession risks] as at all high at the moment.”

But there are signals that Powell’s optimism is unwarranted and that the monetary blanket knitted together with nearly a decade of easy money may be about to unravel. In fact, the deceleration in the growth of the money supply orchestrated by the Fed matches the trend just prior to the 2008 crash.

Mises Institute academic vice president, and Pace University professor of economics Joseph Salerno explains in an article originally published on the Mises Wire

Jeffrey Peshut at RealForecasts.com has composed several very illuminating graphs based on the Rothbard-Salerno True Money Supply (TMS). In one graph Peshut shows the collapse of the growth rate of TMS beginning at the end of 2016, which was caused by the Fed beginning to raise the fed funds target rate at the end of the preceding year. What is of great interest is that the recent deceleration of monetary growth (the second red arrow) almost exactly matches in extent and rapidity the monetary deceleration (the first red arrow) that immediately preceded the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

The Fed recently reaffirmed its commitment to increasing the fed funds rate three more times in 2018 and has just begun its program of shrinking its balance sheet by a cumulative total of $450 billion by the end of 2018. Given these circumstances, I am inclined to agree with Peshut’s conclusion:

With equity prices heading back toward historic highs after the January “correction” and housing prices bubbling to an all-time high in major markets, the suppression of the TMS growth rate, if it is sustained for the rest of the year, portends another credit crisis and housing bust, followed by an economic recession for the US economy.

As Peshut’s graph below indicates the qualitative relationship between TMS growth, credit crisis, and recession has been remarkably clear since 1978. Of course, this empirical relationship should not surprise us, because it is nothing but an illustration of the Austrian theory of the business cycle.

WhyBuyGoldNowBanner.070815.590

Get Peter Schiff’s most important Gold headlines once per week – click here – for a free subscription to his exclusive weekly email updates.
Interested in learning how to buy gold and buy silver?
Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today!


Related Posts

The Era of Boom-Bust Is Not Over

In the most recent Friday Gold Wrap podcast, Mike Maharrey talked about the fact that the Federal Reserve has increasingly engaged in more and more extraordinary monetary policy. As he put it, extreme has become the norm. Despite what pundits insist is a “great” economy, interest rates are extremely low by historical standards and the […]

READ MORE →

Silver and the Stagflationary ’70s

Silver tends to get lost gold’s spotlight but there are reasons to consider adding silver to your portfolio as well. The silver-gold ratio remains at historically high levels. Practically speaking, this means silver is on sale. The supply and demand dynamics also look good for the white metal. Demand is up and global mine output […]

READ MORE →

US Foreign Policy, Oil and the Dollar

The war drums have quieted for the time being. But while the threat of a hot war seems to have diminished, economic warfare continues. President Trump announced another round of economic sanctions on Iran. We have written extensively how about how the US weaponizes the dollar and uses it as a foreign policy tool. This […]

READ MORE →

The Ethical Case for a Gold Standard

As economist Thorsten Polleit pointed out, inflation has pernicious effects on the average person, while tremendously benefiting the chosen few. Inflation the money supply is a policy intentionally carried out by central bankers around the world. Polleit calls this an “inflation scam.” With the Federal Reserve signaling that it is willing to let the inflation […]

READ MORE →

Inflation: A Wealth Redistribution Scam

The Fed has indicated that it won’t hesitate to let the inflation Jeanie out of the bottle. As Peter Schiff put it in a recent podcast, the central bank is willing to resurrect the inflation monster that former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker slew. Even if the Federal Reserve wasn’t set to allow inflation to run […]

READ MORE →

Comments are closed.

Call Now