Money Supply Growth Continues to Accelerate
Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.
One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money supply figure. It was made popular by the late Robert Wenzel who tracked the metric weekly as an indicator for where the economy might be headed. In 2020, the Fed started reporting the data monthly instead of weekly. It should also be noted that Money Supply data can be heavily revised in future months.
Recent Trends
Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply is delayed by a month. The 12 consecutive periods of increased money supply are for Nov 2023 through October 2024. October growth was another elevated month.
Figure: 1 MoM M2 Change (Seasonally Adjusted)
The October increase was 5.1% annualized which is well above the 12-month average of 3.1%.
Figure: 2 M2 Growth Rates
That is slightly below the October average of +5.7%.
Figure: 3 Average Monthly Growth Rates
Non-seasonally adjusted numbers show data through beginning of November, and shows another big up month of $189B. This is only part of the month of November.
Figure: 4 MoM M2 Change (Non-Seasonally Adjusted)
The weekly data below shows the spikes and dips. The latest week shows the biggest weekly surge since at least Jan 2022.
Figure: 5 WoW M2 Change
The “Wenzel” 13-week Money Supply
The late Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal used a modified calculation to track Money Supply. He used a trailing 13-week average growth rate annualized as defined in his book The Fed Flunks. He specifically used the weekly data that was not seasonally adjusted. His analogy was that in order to know what to wear outside, he wants to know the current weather, not temperatures that have been averaged throughout the year.
The objective of the 13-week average is to smooth some of the choppy data without bringing in too much history that could blind someone from seeing what’s in front of them. The 13-week average growth rate can be seen in the table below.
Growth has been accelerating for 15 straight weeks and has hit the highest level in at least 60 weeks.
Figure: 6 WoW Trailing 13-week Average Money Supply Growth
The plot below shows how this year compares with previous years. This year started a bit lower than previous years (though much higher than last year). It is now continuing to rise while most years see a flattening or even falling growth rate at this time of year.
Figure: 7 Yearly 13-week Overlay
Inflation and Money Supply
The chart below shows the history of inflation, Money Supply, and Fed Funds. As shown, in 1970 inflation worked with ~2 year lag compared to Money Supply. Given this, it is possible that another bout of inflation is lurking just under the surface considering the massive spikes in 2020 and 2021. The Fed has already started cutting rates, which will add fuel to the fire.
Figure: 8 YoY M2 Change with CPI and Fed Funds
Historical Perspective
The charts below are designed to put the current trends into historical perspective. The orange bars represent annualized percentage change rather than raw dollar amount.
Figure: 9 M2 with Growth Rate
Below shows the 13-week annualized average over history. This chart overlays the log return of the S&P. Mr. Wenzel proposed that large drops in Money Supply could be a sign of stock market pullbacks. His theory, derived from Murray Rothbard, states that when the market experiences a shrinking growth rate of Money Supply (or even negative) it can create liquidity issues in the stock market, leading to a sell off.
While not a perfect predictive tool, many of the dips in Money Supply precede market dips. Specifically, the major dips in 2002 and 2008 from +10% down to 0%. 2022 was highly correlated with a fall in Money Supply and the rebound has corresponded with the big stock market move we have seen recently.
Please note the chart only shows market data through Nov 4th to align with available M2 data.
Figure: 10 13-week M2 Annualized and S&P 500
One other consideration is the reverse repo market at the Fed. This is a tool that allows financial institutions to swap cash for instruments on the Fed balance sheet.
Reverse Repos peaked at $2.55T on Dec 30, 2022. Money gushed out from March 2023 to May 2024. The outflows have taken another leg down, starting in October. The level now sits at $148B.
Figure: 11 Fed Reverse Repurchase Agreements
Wrapping Up
Money Supply can be a leading indicator and help explain the action in the stock market. Money Supply fell the entire year of 2022, bottomed in early 2023 has been rising pretty steadily since. This has definitely help fuel the stock market to all-time highs. Considering the election of Trump, this trend is likely to continue.
