Contact us
CALL US NOW 1-888-GOLD-160
(1-888-465-3160)

Comex Countdown: Two Days to Go as War Begins

  by    0   0

Usually, I only do one Comex Countdown into the close, but… you know… a war just started. Throw on top the fact that the Comex has been flashing warning signs lately, and I think a daily update is warranted for the next three days.

It’s very possible delivery volume is very robust which could put pressure on the physical market. I will keep the commentary light and the charts simple…

February Silver

First a look at Net New Contracts (opened mid-month for immediate delivery). As shown below, incredible strength with 1,202 contracts or nearly 30% above the previous record of 931.

Figure: 1 Recent like-month delivery volume

When looking at the house accounts, we can see two things.

  1. BofA is not fully responsible – they only have 50% (616 contracts)
  2. Retail looks to be the other half

Figure: 2 House Account Activity

March Silver

When compared to previous major months, open interest went from middle of the pack to front of the back. Still, 2 days to go, but we could be looking at another record.

Figure: 3 Open Interest Countdown

Spreads are still fairly tight, so the market hasn’t gotten out of control yet.

Figure: 4 Roll Cost

February Gold

Total delivery volume will end up being below average as shown below.

Figure: 5 Recent like-month delivery volume

Much of this is due to cash settlements. Nearly 1,706 contracts were cash-settled. This is a far deviation from the trend which has seen some months have as many as 5,000+ contracts opened mid-month for immediate delivery. As mentioned previously, large net contracts in either direction raise interesting questions, but seeing a record number of cash settlements certainly raises an eyebrow!

Figure: 6 Cumulative Net New Contracts

This includes BofA in the market taking almost 6,000 contracts for delivery.

Figure: 7 House Account Activity

March Gold

We can see that March pulled back some yesterday, but is still staying way above trend.

Figure: 8 Open Interest Countdown

April Gold

April is also showing a big move above trend in terms of open interest as shown below.

Figure: 9 Open Interest Countdown

Finally, similar to silver, the spreads on the April contract are in line.

Figure: 10 Roll Cost

What does it all mean?

The market is fairly opaque, which can make it difficult to know exactly what is going on. However, the open interest data is showing some pretty big divergences from the trend. With the Fed losing control of inflation, it’s hard to believe this is all related to Russia and Ukraine, especially considering some of these divergences started to materialize before the conflict. The bottom line, interest in gold is picking up.

Data Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/

Data Updated: Nightly around 11 PM Eastern

Last Updated: Feb 23, 2022

Gold and Silver interactive charts and graphs can be found on the Exploring Finance dashboard: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/goldsilver/

Download SchiffGold's Free Silver Report

Get Peter Schiff’s key gold headlines in your inbox every week – click here – for a free subscription to his exclusive weekly email updates.
Interested in learning how to buy gold and buy silver?
Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today!

Related Posts

Comex Data Continues to Show a Market Under Stress

The Comex report for last month correctly identified a potential big move in silver while the same report two months ago preceded a massive up move for the price of gold. The data this month is not as obvious or compelling, but it is clear the stress on the Comex continues to build.

READ MORE →

Six of Eight Fed Inflation Categories are Above the 12-month Trend

This analysis takes the BLS inflation data and recalculates the percentage changes at the category level to get unrounded numbers. The total number ties to the BLS, but it gives more detail at the granular level.

READ MORE →

Jobs: Household Report is Way Below a Weak Headline Number

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

READ MORE →

The Technicals: Something Else is Driving Gold

This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis of potential price direction in the very short term (1-2 weeks).

READ MORE →

Is the Comex Showing an Impending Price Spike in Silver?

The Comex report last month showed a lot of strength in gold which directly preceded a massive up move for the price of gold. The data is looking similar in silver this month!

READ MORE →

Comments are closed.

Call Now