Farewell, Democracy: Venezuelan Socialism Is Here to Stay

“I speak to you with the calmness of the truth,” Venezuelan presidential candidate Edmundo González told supporters, who had gathered outside his campaign headquarters in Caracas. “We have in our hands the tally sheets that demonstrate our categorical and mathematically irreversible victory.”

The announcement came after González was formally declared the loser in Sunday’s election, according to Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (NEC).

But many suspect the victorious Socialist Party holds the NEC under its thumb. Opponents claim the agency is spilling out lies in a desperate attempt to maintain the Party’s 25 years of continuous rule.

The situation is so intolerable, many believe, that it’s worth fighting over.

“We’re fed up with this,” motorcycle taxi driver Fernando Mejia told Reuters. He was marching through the streets of Maracay, joining one of the nearly 200 protests staged in response to the election results. Many of these protests have turned violent, with casualties mounting. “We want freedom.”

Far from eking out a marginal victory, González claims the voting records he’s collected show that he received more than twice as many votes as his opponent, Nicholas Maduro. That large of a gap, pollsters say, is implausible, though independent exit polls posit as little as 14% support for Maduro and as much as 65% support for Gonzales.

Election integrity looms as a constant threat over Venezuela’s fragile democracy, and it’s been a recurring headline since Maduro’s first and highly volatile term 11 years ago. The U.S. and other countries consider Maduro’s previous reelection fraudulent, despite his insistent claims that violent protests following his victories were simply attacks on democracy.

“We have never been moved by hatred. On the contrary, we have always been victims of the powerful,” Maduro said recently, while deploying police with tear gas and gunfire against protesters. “An attempt is being made to impose a coup d’etat in Venezuela again of a fascist and counterrevolutionary nature.”

Meanwhile, a startling quarter of Venezuela’s population said they’d consider emigrating if Maduro won another term. 

“We aren’t protesting, we’re asking for our votes. He lost a clear loss. He has to leave,” Deivis Limis, a Venezuelan voter who joined crowds in the country’s capital, told the Washington Post. “We can’t continue in this yoke he has on us.”

The U.S. keeps a fairly active role in Venezuelan policy, primarily because of the country’s hefty economic interests which are governed by rich exports of mineral fuels, fertilizers, and ores. The small country also ranks surprisingly high in gold exports, and the U.S. is one of its top purchasers.

Former President Trump consistently took a “maximum pressure” stance on Venezuelan foreign policy. In a sharp reversal, Biden offered last year to ease sanctions on Maduro’s government if the election was kept free and fair, perhaps in a move to opportunely lower fuel prices. The deal included relaxing policies on gold and oil exports–and was violated in months as Maduro jailed opposition figures and withheld permission for strong candidates to run for office.

“A year ago the naysayers would have said none of this is going to happen, the opposition will never unite, the regime will never allow [a fair] election,” one confident U.S. official told the Washington Post after the deal was brokered. “The fact that we’ve come this far I think is a significant statement that the effort was worth it.”

Bargaining now continues after the election, with U.S. officials taking a cautious stance on the possibility of fraud. According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, there are “serious concerns” about election integrity this cycle–but the U.S. hasn’t joined neighboring countries in outright condemnation of the results and calls for a vote recount.

It’s not the first time the aftermath of Venezuelan elections has turned violent, but it is the first time in recent memory that the U.S. hasn’t adopted a hardline or even clearly explained policy stance. Any waffling or uncertainty at this time could spell trouble not only for industries that rely on Venezuelan exports, but also for the U.S.-Mexico border, through which Venezuelans are fleeing economic and political oppression.

This shakeup adds yet another entry to the growing list of global conflicts, placing additional pressure on supply chains and warning investors that risky, intangible assets are growing ever less dependable as countries and governments topple.

From Peter Schiff’s blog: “In any [worst-case] scenarios, gold would provide a durable store of value,” writers say. “People who question its value in time of crisis have clearly never been to an unstable country … While some other investments may have flashy short term gains, gold can help protect against the overnight devaluation nightmares of so many assets when the world as we know it rearranges.”