CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money has Lost Control of the Gold Market

Please note: the CoTs report was published 3/28/2025 for the period ending 3/25/2024. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will always be zero, but the report shows who is positioned long or short. Historically, Hedge Funds (Managed Money) dominate the price action in both Gold and Silver.

Gold

Current Trends

Below shows net positioning for the 5 main groups of futures holders. Net positioning reached multi-year highs back in September and again in February. The February peak brought a rally; however, the gold price spike through $3000 occurred as open interest actually fell!

Figure: 1 Net Position by Holder

Managed Money has been in complete control of the price action for years, driving the spikes in both directions. The overall upward trend is beyond the control of Managed Money but the short-term moves are very much tied to the action of Managed Money.

That changed on this last spike. The Futures market did not drive the price through $3000. In fact, Managed Money had been liquidating positions into the price rally and it did not slow the move.

Figure: 2 Managed Money Net Position

Weekly Activity

Managed Money did buy in the week prior to last but continued selling as the price kept moving higher.

Figure: 3

The activity in the options market did jump some in March, but is still below the September and October highs.

Figure: 4 Options Positions

Silver

Current Trends

Silver diverged from gold in the net positioning was the driver behind the recent high.

Figure: 5 Net Position by Holder

Managed Money has definitely behind the most recent moves as shown below.

Figure: 6 Managed Money Net Position

Weekly Activity

Managed Money has been active both buying and selling at different points.

Figure: 7 Net Change in Positioning

The options market has cooled some in recent months but still remains elevated with a small spike up in March.

Figure: 8 Options Positions

Conclusion

The table below captures what was explained above: in 2025, Managed Money has maintained control over Silver but has lost control of the Gold market. The correlation in positioning is negative in 2025! Furthermore, “Other” has not stepped into the driver’s seat as they did in 2020. This is a very interesting turn of events and further shows the strain in the gold market. We are in uncharted territory!

Figure: 9 Correlation Table