America’s Economic Future: What We Know from Tuesday’s Debate

Golf scores. World War III. Hannibal Lecter. These aren’t traditional topics for a presidential debate, but they’re just a few that have come up during this election cycle. Meanwhile, on the issue that arguably most closely touches voters’ lives–economics–consumers still don’t know what to expect.

Tuesday’s presidential debate cleared up some of the confusion, opening with a question about the U.S. economy. Neither candidate offered a complete picture of what consumers can expect under their administration, but both agreed that a major target of their policies will be keeping inflation at bay.

One of the hallmark economic policies under former President Donald Trump’s administration was tariffs, particularly on goods imported from potential U.S. adversaries like China. The Biden administration has left many of these tariffs intact, and Trump indicated that he would retain or increase tariffs for another term.

“Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all we’ve done for the world,” Trump said. “And the tariffs will be substantial in some cases.”

Trump says this won’t affect the sticker price for consumers, who he expects will also enjoy significant tax cuts and lower inflation rates: “[Consumers] aren’t going to have higher prices … Who’s going to have higher prices is China and all of the countries that have been ripping us off for years.”

He also drew attention to the hardline stance he took toward NATO members with unpaid dues, promising to bring revenue back to the United States that had once been earmarked to cover other countries’ NATO costs.

“For years we were paying almost all of NATO,” Trump told viewers. “We were being ripped off by European nations, both on trade and on NATO. I got them to pay up by saying … if you don’t pay, we’re not going to protect you.”

Vice President Kamala Harris’s economic plan, which she released last month, was also up for debate. Repeating numbers from the plan, she gave voters a picture of the handouts they could expect to receive from her administration.

“Let’s compare [our] plans,” Harris challenged Trump. “I have a plan to give startup businesses $50,000 tax deduction … $6,000 for young families for the first year of your child’s life … [and] $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time home buyers.”

Harris did not say how she would handle tariffs, but likened Trump’s policy to a “sales tax” that could put an extra cost burden on consumers.

“[That] would be a 20% tax on everyday goods that you rely on to get through the month,” she said, referencing Trump’s recent call for tariffs that could stretch up to 20% on certain goods. “Economists have said that Trump’s sales tax would actually result for middle-class families in about $4,000 more [costs] a year.”

Harris also attacked Trump’s economic plan, saying the best economists in the country had reviewed his proposed policies and found them wanting.

“What the Wharton School has said is Donald Trump’s plan would actually explode the deficit,” Harris said. “Sixteen Nobel laureates have described his economic plan as something that would increase inflation and by the middle of next year would invite a recession.”

Trump responded: “I went to the Wharton School of Finance and many of those professors, the top professors, think my plan is a brilliant plan.”

What can consumers take away from the debate? In the old cliche: If there’s one thing that’s certain, it’s that nothing is certain. Even if it were clear which candidate would win–though, right now, both are polling neck-and-neck–questions remain about exactly how much they would be able to achieve with a Congress likely to be sharply divided on policy issues. Right now, what we know is that the economic outlooks of each candidate are almost diametrically opposed. That means wise consumers must hedge their bets, hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. 

With both candidates drawing attention to inflation, gold prices are already up as consumers face mounting worries about the health of the U.S. dollar. That’s a sign of more precious metal investing to come, says Peter Schiff, who is warning investors that a currency crisis could be on the horizon in the wake of political and global unrest.

“People are complacent. ‘Oh, the dollar will be the world’s reserve forever because no other currency can take its place,’” Schiff said. “Gold is the best real money that we’ve discovered. And that’s where we’re headed.”